CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is projected to reach 414.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2021, 49% more than at pre-industrial levels.
After experiencing a 5.4% decline in 2020, global CO2 emissions will rebound in 2021 near pre-pandemic levels (2019) if all remains the same and a further increase is not ruled out in 2022, according to a report by researchers from the Global Carbon Project organization.
This is clear from the “Global Carbon Budget”, a study that reflects the variations and trends of CO2 in the environment, taking as a reference the beginning of the industrial era (1750) and which indicates that “an increase of 4.9% is expected this year, until reaching 36,400 million tons (Mt) in total ”.
Specifically, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to reach 414.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2021, which is 49% more than at pre-industrial levels, when it was 277 ppm.
According to data from the annual report of that group of researchers led by Stanford University scientist Rob Jackson, emissions “from the use of coal in 2021 will exceed 2019 levels, but remain below their 2014 peak.”
Emissions from natural gas use are also expected to “exceed 2019 levels in 2021,” continuing a “steady” trend of increasing gas use.
Only CO2 emissions from oil will remain in 2021 “well below 2019 levels.”
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the UK’s Institute for Global Systems in Exeter and lead author of the study noted that “the rapid spike in emissions” after the pandemic “reflects a return to a fossil fuel economy” and “reinforces the need for immediate global action on climate change ”.
The document details that in Spain, emissions in 2020 were 208.9 million tons of CO2, which implies a decrease of 17.2% compared to 2019 levels.
However, in the European Union as a whole, “emissions are expected to rise 7.6% in 2021 compared to 2020, representing a total of 2,800 million tons of CO2, which represents 7% of emissions. worldwide ”.
The specialists who prepared the report point out that “to have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, 1.7 degrees and 2 degrees” Celsius, it would be necessary to emit “420,000 Mt, 770,000 Mt and 1,270,000 Mt, respectively, equivalent to 11, 20 and 32 years with the 2021 emission levels.
Reaching net zero of CO2 emissions (not emitting more than the planet is capable of absorbing) by 2050 means reducing total CO2 contributions each year by 1.4 gigatons (Gt) of CO2.
This reduction is comparable to the decrease of 1.9 Gt of CO2 related to the pandemic during 2020, which “highlights the magnitude of the necessary action”, although “lockdowns are not the most effective way to achieve these cuts in emissions ”.
As for today’s large emitters, the global growth in fossil CO2 emissions is mainly due to increased use of coal in China’s electrical and industrial sectors.
The projection for 2021 points to an “increase in CO2 emissions in the case of India” and a “decrease in CO2 emissions in the case of the EU and the United States as a whole”, although the latter two are the “Historical responsible for most of the emissions accumulated to date”.
Investments in the green economy in some countries’ post-covid recovery plans “have been insufficient so far, on their own, to avoid a substantial return close to pre-health crisis emissions.
In addition, global gross emissions due to changes in land use remain high: 14.1 Gt of CO2 in the last decade, due to “the reduction of the control capacity and the legal application of measures to reduce tropical deforestation after the pandemic ”.
The good news is that “the economic disturbance of the covid-19 in 2020 seems to have accelerated the transition to renewable energies, since they have maintained their growth until 2020.” (I)
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