Today the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) will publish the official figures of the evolution of the national gross domestic product (GDP) during 2021. The consensus of the economic agents is that the result would be 13%, which explains, in terms macroeconomicwhich managed to exceed pre-pandemic levels.
According to the projections of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), the value of the GDP in 2021 would be S/ 549,000 million, above what was registered in the 2019, when it was S / 546,000 million.
The economist Armando Mendoza explains that although the result for 2021 includes a rebound effect due to the deep drop in 2020 (-11.2%), it also incorporates real growth in the national economy, therefore, he adds, the task is to This dynamism will last during this 2022, for which a growth of between 3.5% and 4% is estimated, according to the MEF.
Outlook 2022
Although in macroeconomic terms pre-pandemic levels were exceeded, there are still sectors that have not fully recovered, such as services, commerce and tourism.
Given this, Mendoza indicates that the measures should be focused on promoting these items; however, he highlights that the great advance in vaccination will help these sectors to accelerate their reactivation.
On this point, Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, pointed out that in December 2021 it was observed that formal employment in the service sector expanded by 8.3% due to the fact that vaccination has reinforced consumer confidence.
Another factor that could contribute to the performance of 2022 would be the return of face-to-face classes, since it has an important impact on business.
”We are talking about probably 100,000 people who make a living from school mobility, those who give private lessons, those who sell school supplies, uniforms; also the man who is at the school gate selling cookies will win with this restart of classes, “said Mendoza.
For his part, the economist Eduardo Recoba projects that the economy The national economy would have a growth of between 2.8% and 2.9%, for which he considers that the MEF will readjust its estimates given the austerity of employment that currently exists.
”We don’t think growth will go beyond 2.8% or 2.9%. This has to do with the dynamism of employment that comes very slowly. In 2022 there will be a lot of slowdown regarding private investment, which in the best case will grow 0%”, the expert said.
Political plane and international context
The change of ministers and the constant tension between the Executive and the Legislative have an influence on the behavior of the economy, Mendoza warns, since political conflicts generate mistrust and projects slow down.
Meanwhile, international metal prices are favorable for us, since we are an exporting country. However, Recoba points out that it would be a greater contribution if this good dynamism is accompanied by new projects. miners. “If we don’t expand more projects, we won’t take advantage of high raw material prices,” he says.
Data
Dear. The various organizations and financial companies have a GDP growth projection ranging between 2.3% and 4.4%.
Performance. The average monthly production of electricity had a growth of 2.3% in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021.
Infographic – The Republic
Source: Larepublica
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