In the first Monthly Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations for 2022 carried out by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP)the businessmen consulted had a better perspective on the economy compared to December 2021.
In this way, all the indicators of expectations at 3 and 12 months showed a recovery compared to the previous month, with the exception of the situation of the company at 3 months, which fell from 51 to 50 points, remaining in the optimistic range.
Meanwhile, most current situation indicators registered a decrease (see infographic).
Thus, according to the BCRP, seven indicators out of a total of 18 were located in the optimistic section during the month of January.
One of the indicators that improved in the first month of the year was the expectation of hiring personnel in 3 and 12 months, which now stand at 48 and 56 points, respectively.
Regarding the expectation that the business community has about their company’s investment in 3 months, this indicator went from 43 to 45; however, it is still located in the pessimistic section. While said 12-month indicator rose from 51 to 54 points. It remains on the optimistic side.
The sector’s expectations for 3 and 12 months also improved, standing at 50 and 62 points, remaining within the optimistic range.
The BCRP also asked businessmen in the commerce sector how they fared in the last Christmas campaign.
According to the information obtained, the majority of those consulted responded that the sales in said campaign were similar or greater than what was achieved in 2019.
Likewise, non-financial companies indicated that the factors that most affected their sales in January 2022 were the infections of their workers by the third wave of COVID-19 and logistical problems.
In said survey, economic analysts and the financial system raised their growth projections for GDP for this year, due to the dynamism of economic activity.
In the case of analysts, their forecast rose from 2.6% in December to 3.0% this month, while the financial system raised it from 2.5% to 2.6%.
Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2022 rose from a range between 3.5% and 3.75% in December 2021 to one between 3.50% and 3.85% in the last survey, above the range BCRP goal.
Finally, economic agents expect the exchange rate for the end of 2022 to be between S/ 3.99 and S/ 4.00 per dollar.
Armando Mendoza, economist
These polls are snapshots of the moment. There is a recognition that 2021 was a year of recovery and it is seen in indicators such as the level of sales in the Christmas campaign compared to previous years, which confirms what has been said in recent months, that Peru had already surpassed the downturn after the downturn from the impact of covid and now the challenge is how do we sustain growth going forward at substantial levels.
Expectations are quite conservative, it is considered that we will be above the target range in terms of inflation, but abrupt jumps are not expected this year either, the same would happen with the exchange rate, it is committed to a stabilization that is S / 4.00.
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