In the midst of the historical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the great geopolitical dynamic that is currently taking place between Moscow and the West, crude oil takes on a more important role in this international conflict.
Gasoline prices vary according to international oil values. An invasion of Ukraine would trigger immediate fears of US sanctions on Russia’s vast energy resources, which is the second largest producer of oil on the planet, only behind the US.
In addition, Ukraine is a key energy transit hub, through which a large amount of Russian natural gas exports flow to Europe.
These sanctions, added to the tension between Ukraine and Russia, could lead to a disruption in supply chains of oil, which would lead to an increase in the price of oil for one or two quarters. According to Business Insider, if the cut was 2.3 million barrels per day in oil production, global supply would fall by 2%.
In the next weeks, the price of oil could shoot up 76% by tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as warned by JPMorgan. This could lead the price of gasoline to break new records. A rise in the price of gasoline increases the production costs of several products, which would have the consequence that the sale prices also rise.
Today, February 4, it was reported that the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April gained 2.37% to finish at $93.27. In New York, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in March, rose 2.25%, to close at $92.31.
According to data from JPMorgan, the conflict in Ukraine could trigger the global inflation at 7.2% in the first half of 2022. (I)
Source: Eluniverso
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