The Peru will have between 2022 and 2023 third lowest foreign debt in the region, According to the latest report from LatinFocus.
According to the study, Peru’s debt in 2022 will be 43.2% of GDP, only behind Brazil and Mexico that would lead the performance of the region with 13.6% and 37.2% of GDP, respectively.
continue on the list, external debts from Bolivia (47.7%), Paraguay (50.1%), Argentina (54.9%), Ecuador (55.1%) and Colombia (55.5%).
In 2023, Peru’s debt would be 44.5% of GDP. As in 2022, Brazil and Mexico would head the list with 17% and 37.2% of their GDP.
for the economist Edward Recoba, Peru’s good performance is due to the fact that in the last semester of 2021, the tool linked to fiscal discipline was established as the base scenario.
“This means that the fiscal rule is going to allow the trajectory of public finances to be measured based on an increase in income versus a control over spending,” he points out.
Good scenario for investors
According to the specialist, this scenario will allow the debt vs. PBI not increase in the next 8 or 14 months. “Many economists are establishing as a base scenario that it does not go beyond 32% or 33% of GDP for the coming months,” he says.
What’s more, pick up stresses that the level of future indebtedness places Peru in a better position than other countries in the region compared to investors.
”This is an economy that is not exposing its public finances too much due to the search for foreign capital”, stands out.
Added to this is the fact that central banks around the world are tightening their monetary policies.
“Having an economy that bases its growth on a smaller amount of indebtedness will be very healthy,” he concludes.
Fiscal deficit fell to 2.6%
The fiscal deficit decreased from 8.9% of GDP in 2020 to 2.6% in 2021, mainly due to the increase in income taxes from the national government, due to the recovery of economic activity, a favorable international situation and the recording of extraordinary income from tax debt payments, according to the BCRP.
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