The BBVA Research Peru It maintained its 2.3% growth forecast for the Peruvian economy in 2022, with an advance of 1.3% in November compared to the GDP figures for the same month in 2019, and 3.5% compared to 2020.
For the bank, the GDP in this month showed a performance not very different from the previous one, although with a dynamism “somewhat less compared to the figures observed in the third quarter”, in a context in which external conditions continue to be favorable. .
However, he warned of still lax business spirits and social conflicts that hampered the extractive activities of last November, in addition to the lower economic stimuli, such as the upward adjustments in the BCRP interest rate.
“Continuing with the comparison with respect to 2019, the main support for activity in November was the non-primary component of GDP, which showed a recovery compared to previous months. Within the interior, the trends in commerce and services stood out, while the growth rates of construction and non-primary manufacturing continue to be high,” BBVA said.
On the contrary, affirms the BBVA, the primary component of the GDP, that is, the one that groups the sectors most related to the extraction of natural resources, accentuated its decline, “highlighting in this sense the mining and hydrocarbon activities, affected by the high level of conflict in that period.
BBVA: mixed returns by sector
In the seasonally adjusted analysis, the loss of momentum in November was clearer, although less than in the previous month. Thus, the INEI indicates that production contracted 0.5% in the month (with respect to the previous month), while in October it did so by 1.2%.
“It is the first time in the year that two consecutive contractions in activity have been recorded, which led to the monthly production level falling below its pre-health crisis level,” the institution reported.
On the other hand, indicators available for December and January, such as electricity production and domestic cement consumption, suggest that, at the margin, the GDP loses some momentum.
BBVA: job recovery
In the labor market, the data suggest that the trends continue to be positive, explains BBVA. On the one hand, formal jobs (electronic payroll) continue to advance and in November they were in positive territory for the third consecutive month, with which in that month they exceeded the formal jobs achieved in the same month of 2019 by 143,000.
The wage mass of formal workers returned to the expansion zone in real terms. More recent available data (December), although limited to the city of Lima -an area that is further behind in the normalization of employment than the rest of the country-, also point to an improvement: the number of jobs tends to normalize in Lima, although this process is not yet complete.
“After overcoming the third wave of infections, due to a gradual normalization of capacity that will benefit the most intensive activities in physical contact (which will also favor the generation of employment), to which the entry into operation of mines will be added. copper mines that at full operating capacity will increase the production of this metal by around 20%”, he stated.
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