Global growth will slow to 4% this year, UN says

The United Nations Organization (UN) reported that 2022 will be marked by lower growth (4% worldwide) and greater inequalities, both between countries and within each country, a direct consequence of the imbalances caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition, he indicated that his projections, which are in the same line as those of entities such as the World Bank (WB), foresee growth for 2022 clearly below that registered last year, when a figure of 5.5% was reached. . They reported that this trend will worsen in 2023, because growth will be reduced to 3.5%.

These figures will not prevent, for example, extreme poverty from being reduced in the world since, in 2022, it is expected that 64 million more people will join this group than there were in 2019, the last year before of the pandemic.

In addition, the global recovery appears to be slowing down due to several factors, including the expansion of the omicron variant of COVID-19, problems in labor markets, supply chain discontinuities and inflationary pressures.

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“The labor market shows the paradox of a rich world where there is a lack of workers for unskilled jobs (mainly in the United States) and a poor world with masses of the working-age population that cannot find jobs,” he reports.

Today there are 137 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, highlighted the head of the economic department of the UN Division of Economic and Social Affairs, Hamid Rashid.

The UN economists point out that, despite the robust rebound registered in 2021 as a whole, in recent months this has already slowed down significantly in China, the United States or the European Union as stimulus policies have begun. to be reduced and that problems appeared in the supply chains.

Increase in existing inequalities

Likewise, the United Nations warns that the increase in inequality —both within countries and between rich and poor nations— is going to be one of the great economic consequences of COVID-19.

In this sense, it is pointed out that Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean are going to be very far from the growth projections they had before the pandemic, while the most advanced economies, especially those in South and Southeast Asia, are expected to have almost fully recovered by 2023.

And so, despite several years of growth in a row, in 2023 Latin America and the Caribbean will still have their GDP below what they had in 2019 (-5.5% and -4.2%, respectively), which, they indicate, “will exacerbate poverty and inequality, undermining sustainable development”.

gender inequalities

In addition, it points out that the unequal recovery of employment and income between different population groups is triggering inequalities within countries, with women being the worst off, especially in developing countries.

“Being on the front lines during the pandemic, many have had to leave their jobs,” Rashid said. In the post-pandemic, only European and North American countries have had a strategy of reincorporating them into the labor market with measures aimed primarily at alleviating their childcare burdens, mainly.

However, in poor countries, where they have not had public aid, women face a combination of “high family expectations coupled with low qualifications”, which makes it very difficult for them to return to the labor market.

“A crisis like the current one gives us the opportunity to rethink social and labor market policies,” recalled the economist, who insisted that “if we don’t practice inclusive policies, things will only get worse.”

In this sense, the United Nations considers it a priority to avoid “premature fiscal consolidation” in many developing countries, despite recognizing that most have little room for manoeuvre.

In addition, it warns that an excessively rapid withdrawal of the monetary stimuli that central banks around the world deployed in the face of the crisis could undermine the fragile recovery that is expected.

Source: EFE