This afternoon the manager of the ECB, Guillermo Avellán, gave the results of the National Accounts for the third quarter of 2021 and spoke of 2021 and 2022.
The Central Bank of Ecuador foresees that the country will grow 4% in 2021, the figure is higher than the forecast that was used until November 2021 and which was 3.55%. This was confirmed a few minutes ago by the manager of the agency, Guillermo Avellán. Meanwhile, the country’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2022, although it is not ruled out that there could be a better result, considering the recovery in various productive sectors.
The official made these statements regarding the presentation of the results of the National Accounts for the third quarter of 2021. This result also represents a better performance of the economy. The interannual growth (comparing the third quarter of 2020 with the third quarter of 2021) shows a result of 5.6%. This was mainly leveraged on household consumption, the result of which was 11%.
For Avellán, household spending improved by at least three factors: the recovery of the labor market, the increase in the level of credit and the growth of remittances. “This is a firm step towards recovery since this component represents 60% of GDP,” said the official.
Meanwhile, gross capital formation, In other words, investment grew by 7.8% in this same period. This component had regressed ten years in a pandemic, that is, to 2010 levels, but now it is registering a recovery. According to Avellán, this result is related to greater investment in machinery and transport equipment. This item registers two consecutive quarters of growth.
Consumption of Government was at 3.3%, and it fails to reach pre-pandemic levels; while the imports grew 22.8%. Exports were negative for the quarter in analysis and is explained by a drop in foreign sales of oil, bananas, coffee and cocoa.
According to Avellán, it is good news that household spending has recovered significantly, with three consecutive quarters of growth, which places it at prendemic levels. Another point to highlight is that shrimp aquaculture was the industry that grew the most with 19 points in year-on-year terms.
On the other hand, the third quarter of 2021 had a quarterly growth (comparing the third quarter of 2020 with the third quarter of 2021) of 0.5%.
In accordance with Jaime Carrera, executive secretary of the Fiscal Policy Observatory (OPF), the 2021 growth of Ecuador will surely be between 3.5% and 4%, but it is due to a rebound effect after the terrible result of 2020, which was a drop of 8%. Carrera considers among the factors that helped the growth the success of the vaccination. He also believes that the deficit was reduced as a result of increased oil revenues, tax collection, multilaterals and savings in subsidies.
While this growth is one of the lowest in Latin America, even more so when compared to Peru and Colombia, Carrera believes that it is an extraordinary growth, considering that Ecuador had to face 2020 totally unprotected and that therefore a huge deficit was generated. Other countries such as Chile and Peru made use of their savings and were able to inject liquidity into the economy, and in this way, generate a more robust rebound effect.
Vaccination allowed growth in commerce and accommodation
The Commerce, accommodation and food services are the productive sectors that obtained the best figures in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, that is to say, year-on-year growth. This was explained by the manager of the Central Bank, Guillermo Avellán.
The official said that said growth, of 14% and 38% respectively, demonstrates the positive impact of the vaccination plan implemented by the Government of Guillermo Lasso. In order of performance, the manufacturing and refining of crude also obtained a good result, comparing the same periods.
Meanwhile, in terms of quarterly growth, that is, a comparison between the second quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2021, the best performing sectors were public administration and defense, transportation and financial services activities. Aquaculture and construction follow. The manager Avellán said that in 2021 a greater recovery in construction is expected, which has a great multiplier effect.
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