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GDP recovery will not guarantee to alleviate monetary poverty

During 2020, poverty reached 9.9 million Peruvians (30.1% of the population), which represented a decline of ten years after the economy contracted by -11.1% due to the stoppage of activities due to of COVID-19.

Although for this year the economy is expected to reach just over 10% due to statistical rebound; entities like Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), el The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund project that by 2022 the GDP will oscillate between 3 and 4.6%, which would consolidate the recovery, since levels not observed in the last eight years would be passed.

Impact on mass employment activities Federico Arnillas, president of the Roundtable for the Fight against Poverty (MCPLCP), argues that economic recovery does not guarantee an automatic decrease in monetary poverty ratios despite their causal relationship.

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“The issue is how much of the investment that is produced or the growth of the economy is linked to branches of activity with a significant impact on employment. If it is low in (generation of) employment, we can grow a lot but poverty will continue to be maintained ”, he tells for this newspaper, within the framework of the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty.

Along these lines, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), the population employed in sectors such as services (transport, real estate, business and social services and health activities) continues to contract by -15.4% at the end of the first half of this year compared to 2019. A similar panorama it is observed in manufacturing (-8.9%) and fishing (-13.4%).

On the other side of the coin, some sectors even exceeded the total workforce before the coronavirus: agriculture (20.5%), mining (19.2%), construction (20.2%) and commerce (4 , 8%).

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Arnillas argues that there are still important gaps in the recovery of employment, and these in the end are expressed as monetary poverty in the population, although he recalled that there are other indicators that will not change for the better in the short term, such as the quality of housing, access to education and basic services, among others.

In addition, the specialist recognizes that monetary poverty can be reduced if monetary transfer policies continue to be applied to the most vulnerable population -Which helped poverty not soar by more than the current 10%, according to specialists- so that companies have someone to sell to.

PBI does not ensure exit

While, Javier Herrera, investigator of WRITE, stated that the 4% growth of GDP in 2022 does not guarantee that poverty will be reduced due to the current circumstances.

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“We are in a different context in which this 4% is a very uneven growth in the different activities, especially those for the domestic market that have not yet taken off. The areas of commerce and services, where the largest number of poor workers are found, are not fully recovering ”, he said.

“Politicians do not prioritize the excluded”

“Poverty is not a fatality, it is the fact that the political powers do not prioritize the excluded or the needy,” said the president of the Emmaus International association, Patrick Atohoun, to the AFP agency.

The representative of the entity emphasized three requirements to combat homelessness. The first of these implies that vulnerable people “have to receive a dignified, unconditional welcome.”

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Likewise, he considered that interest should be focused at the level of public policies through the collective management of common goods. Finally, he proposed the construction of an economy at the service of human beings and their environment, giving priority to the development of activities.

Data

In the background. Among the 9.9 million Peruvians living in poverty, 1.5 million are in extreme poverty.

Focus. Arnillas He advanced that next to INEI They have been studying poverty from a multidimensional aspect for a more reliable reflection and more effective decision-making.

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Profile of monetary poverty in Peru

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