The hangover of the New Year does not drag the echoes of uncertainty regarding the future of the Peruvian economy as it happened at the beginning of 2021. And it is that, by 2022, it is expected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) local is one of the strongest in Latin America, and even the best looking in the southern part.
Recently, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected that the Peruvian economy will achieve growth of 4.4%, surpassing neighboring countries -with which we always compare ourselves when looking in the mirror- such as Colombia (3.8%), Chile (3.2%) and Brazil (2 ,two%).
At the regional level, only Panama (8.2%); Dominican Republic, (5.5%) and El Salvador (4.6%) make better estimates.
From ECLAC they pointed out that the perspectives may vary according to the advances in the vaccination processes and the capacity of the countries to “reverse the structural problems behind the low growth trajectory they exhibited before the pandemic.”
Correlation
Ya el International Monetary Fund (IMF) He had advanced in October that the Peruvian economy would lead regional growth: firstly, they modified upward the GDP rebound for 2021, taking it from 8.5% to 10%; while by 2022 this would be 4.6% (before it was 5.2%).
Despite the slight decline in the figure, For the IMF, our country would achieve levels that will be surpassed only by the United States (5.2%) and Canada (4.9%).
With the projections of Cepal and the IMF – added to 4.8% of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) -, levels not seen in eight years would be exceeded, a time in which the GDP did not exceed 3.99%.
Even the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, Michael Spence, considered that the projections around the Peruvian market are optimal. “The downward trend could perhaps have been flatter – compared to the fall suffered in 2020 – but we see that the projected growth for next year (2022) is quite respectable (sic) 5% to 6% in view of the situation. where we are. It’s a pretty quick recovery, “he said.
Strengths
Peru remains one of the states with the lowest levels of country risk compared to others in the region and emerging markets (see infographic).
Additionally, due to macro-fiscal strengths, The 10-year Peruvian sovereign bond rate in dollars is one of the lowest in Latin America, reaching 2.6%. It is followed by Chile (2.9%), Mexico (3.0%), Colombia (4.5%) and Brazil (4.7%).
With this, it is possible to access low interest rates and better financing conditions in the capital markets, summarizes the MEF.
Route
The favorable estimates discharged to the development of Peruvian economic activity are due to the resilience that characterizes us, summarizes the dean of the Faculty of Economics and Finance of the UP, Carlos Casas, who also believes that higher levels can be reached this year considering that in the previous mineral supercycle it grew by more than 7%.
“The rate of 3% or 4% is not bad, since it occurs despite the fact that the prospects of private investment they are low. There I would see the glass half empty because we have everything to grow more, but we do not take advantage of it due to the political uncertainty, “he commented.
Casas emphasized that the tensions between Congress and the Executive generate enough noise to perpetuate uncertainty, but he acknowledges that the ghosts surrounding the expropriation and change of the Constitution “are in the past.”
In that sense, he considered that there is always room to modify tax rates, but in the current boom it is not adequate because the mining contribution is already high, for which he recommends addressing the sources of conflict. “If the economy reaches a permanent recovery, I would think of a tax package, but little by little. The recovery is still fragile, “he concluded.
The data
Scope. According to Carlos Casas, taxing streaming platforms and the non-poor should be a priority once stability is achieved.
Turn. Cepal recommends investments towards renewable energies and a digital revolution to universalize their access.
Peru at the forefront of economic growth
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Kingston is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
