He dollar exchange rate The day of February 18 began with a new fall, located at S/3,6865, according to Bloomberg. Likewise, the currency closed yesterday with a new decrease, reaching S/ 3,6950, a level lower than the projected in the economic estimates of the late 2024.
According to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), A combination of internal and external factors have strengthened the Peruvian sun against the dollar.
Factors
Pablo Leno Montero, general manager of Rent4 Peru Sab, explained to the Republic that there are four factors that have diluted the value of the dollar.
First, Donald Trump’s tariffs. When the world understood that they were a bilateral negotiation instrument, they ceased to be seen as a threat of aggressive inflation pressures.
Second, the imminent peace between Russia and Ukraine. Although the dollar had been an active refuge during the conflict, the announcement of the high to fire promoted the strengthening of other currencies, such as the euro, given the expectation that geopolitical stability contributes to additional growth of between 0.4% and 0.6% of the GDP.
Third, the sale of dollars from the corporate world. March marks the start of the tax payment season, which forces many companies to convert your reservations into dollars to soles to fulfill your tax obligations. This injection of dollars in the market generates a greater offer, exercising down pressure on the exchange rate and, in some cases, temporarily weakening the price of the dollar against the sun.
“Do not get our attention if it reaches S/3,645, and converge with the income tax payment period, which is in a limbo of S/3.60 or S/3.62”, Pablo Leno Montero , General Manager of Income4 Peru Sab, to the Republic.
Fourth, the good performance of the Mining sector driven by the rise in metal prices. When the value of minerals increases, companies in the sector seek to expand their production, raising both prices and sales volumes. This translates into higher income, which in turn increases the payment of taxes, forms and other obligations in soles, generating additional pressure on the exchange rate.
“Although the initial projections for 2025 did not contemplate a drop in the dollar to these levels, the current economic dynamics have exceeded expectations,” said Jonathan Torres, a market analyst in Capitaria, to this newspaper.
He added that Peru closed 2024 with a commercial surplus of US $ 24,000 million, the highest in its history. This has favored a greater currency entry, relieving pressure on the exchange rate.
Likewise, the BCRP has maintained a policy of interest rates aligned with inflation control, which closed in 2.1% in 2024, the lowest in the region. The analyst said that this environment has strengthened the confidence of investors and contributed to the appreciation of the local currency.
Political and economic stability has positioned the Peruvian sun as an attractive currency in the region. “We are observing an increase in the demand for soles in neighboring markets such as Bolivia and Brazil, which has also promoted its strengthening,” said Torres.
In addition, the recent decision of the United States Federal Reserve to maintain its interest rate by 4.5% has reduced the attractiveness of the dollar in emerging markets, favoring coins such as the Peruvian sun.
Mid -March
In a pre -election year, it is unlikely that the exchange rate falls in waterfall. This moment represents an opportunity for those who need dollars, since the most strategic decisions could be taken towards mid -March, when the intentionality of Payment of taxes.
Then, the trend could be reversed. In the face of the 2026 elections, political uncertainty could increase volatility in the exchange market, with investors taking refuge in the dollar until there is greater clarity over the electoral landscape.
Telefónica and its influence on the dollar
The rumor in the market is that banking treasures are advancing to sell dollars to the expectation of higher settlements. Telefónica’s departure from the region and a possible mass default could force great players to get rid of their dollars.
It is estimated that the amount of dollars for sale will exert pressure on the exchange rate, leading it to a range of S/ 3.65 to S/ 3.60. Faced with this, some Treasury They choose to get ahead of the sale, with the repurchase strategy when telephone liquidates its position and the exchange rate will recover towards S/ 3.70.
Source: Larepublica
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