Peruvian economy closed 2024 with a growth of 3.3%, far from its maximum potential

He National Statistics and Informatics Institute (INEI) He reported that the country’s productive activity increased 3.33% in 2024 due to a better performance of sectors such as fishing, transport and agriculture that grew 24.89%, 6.1% and 4.94%, respectively. In relation to the December data, the GDP rose for the third consecutive month and reached 4.85%.

As soon as this result was known, the Government of Dina Boluarte greeted the recovery process of the Peruvian economy that contracted in 2023. However, specialists explained that the rhythm of expansion is still distant from its maximum potential and questioned the overeptimism of the President of the Council of Ministers that led him to project a 5% growth for this 2025.

Insufficient growth

Fishing suffered a 19.7% contraction in the year of the economic recession. Subsequently, a 24.89% growth was recovered and recorded in 2024. Its monthly variation in December reached 76.76% due to a greater capture of maritime origin species for indirect human consumption, within the framework of the second season of anchovy fishing.

In addition to this sector, agriculture expanded by 4.94% due to an increase in agricultural and livestock subsector. Proof of this is that in the last month of the year, agricultural production advanced 7.54% in the face of the highest volumes of mango, paprika, tomato, grape and potato, determined by the largest area sown of the main crops.

“Growth has been greater than what was expected, since the projection was 3.2%. On the one hand, there was a recovery of the agricultural and fishing sectors, as well as the public administration that expanded above the average. Similarly, IGV and ISC collection was above. Consultants

In the opinion of Odar, these short -term factors promoted the expansion of the GDP, but are not necessarily sustainable. In that line, economist Armando Mendoza said that the recovery of the Peruvian economy is due to a statistical rebound effect, while considering the special stimuli that arose in 2024 as the withdrawal of the AFP, CTS and the impulse of public investment.

However, he pointed out that Peru is far from the minimum growth levels to improve the population’s life standards. And it is that rates close to 3% do not reach to reduce poverty that affected 29.0% of the Peruvian population in 2023 and increased by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year.

“Poverty is reduced by the generation of quality employment and increase in families’ income. With a 3%growth rate, there is a consensus that the impact on poverty is minimal. To begin to see a substantial decrease , rates of about 5% or more are needed, “he said.

As remembered, the PBI potential From our country it reached its greatest expansion rates between 2002 and 2008, with an average annual, period in which there was an increase in commodities prices.

Mining and construction

The mining and hydrocarbons sector faces difficulties in achieving significant growth rates, although we are going through a context of high metals and reduced social conflicts. At the end of 2024, this item that represents 15% of GDP, experienced an increase of 2.04%:

The low implementation of size projects and the advance of illegal mining would be some of the factors that limited the performance of mining in 2024. But, they are not all. Juan Carlos Odar says that the volume of exports has descended compared to 2022.

“That reflects that mining has recovered, but starting from a low base of previous years. In terms of volume it still does not recover the maximum historical levels. In this scenario of high prices, one can say that opportunities are being lost. If the Mining Investment Dynamics would have been greater, there would be no problem, “he explained.

On the other hand, construction closed 2024 with a 3.58% growth, a figure that is distant from the production levels of 2022. In the last month of that year, that sector contracted at 0.88% by the child Physical advance of public works that was observed in the areas of the local and regional government, as well as in construction works of non -residential buildings.

“In 2024, the construction sector grew due to the impact of public investment. When it reaches the end of the year, it falls and it is not so strange what happened in December. But, it does worry because we will have to see what happens with the construction In the private sector.

Projections for this 2025

In a recent interview in RPP, the president of the Council of Ministers, Gustavo Adrianzén, estimated that the GDP would grow this 2025 about 5%, a distant figure from the projections of various national and international entities. And it is that the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework 2025-2028 anticipates an expansion of the economy by 3.1%.

To this, we must add internal and external factors that could limit the performance of the Peruvian economy as the uncertainty for the pre -election scenario and the impacts of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies in the United States that would affect the growth of the world economy.

“For now, it is unlikely to aspire to a 5% growth in this year. We must take into account the risks that are incubating externally, following the actions of the United States that imposes tariffs on countries that we sell matters Professors like China.

DATA

• The financial and insurance sector was the only one that registered a negative rate last year of -1.6%.
• In December, all sectors of the economy grew, except construction.