Guido Valdivia de Capeco: “We must promote social housing where possible. Municipalities cannot stop that “

This 2025, the construction sector will not yet recover the loss suffered in 2023 (-7.9%). In dialogue with the Republic, Guido Valdivia, Executive Director of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), notes the projects of investment auspicious, but also the costs of the criminality to the PBI Sectorial.

After the ruling of the Constitutional Court (TC) against Mirafloreshope that real estate projects will be unlock and conflicts with the commune of Carlos Canales are settled. In addition, it criticizes the eventual creation of the Ministry of Infrastructurethat the Executive seeks to hurry.

– The construction sector grew in 2024, but well below expected. How do this 2025 start and what perspectives are there?

– The perspective of a somewhat greater growth. Is the average of BCR estimates, MEFprivate consultants and our survey that tells us about a growth of around 3.5%, which is better than last year. Recall that in 2023 there was a drop of 7.9%, which means that, even with this result, we would not be recovering the levels that were in 2022. Our current level of production is lower.

– What would be a healthy and realistic growth rate?

– If a year we must grow between 4.5% and 5% in GDP to reduce poverty and generate competitiveness, we would have to grow at least double in investment. With the accumulated infrastructure deficit, the need for repressed housing and potentials such as roads, trains, energy, hydroelectric works, it is a reasonable figure to think of 9%, but, unfortunately, there is a potential product that does not pass from the figures we are getting now.

– The 3.5% forecast in which main components would be leverage?

– Public works, which grew 10.5% last year, will grow around 4.5% this year, and private work, a growth close to 3.2%. Internal cement consumption must be around 3.2%.

– Proinversion has been dynamic, what projects do they see with good eyes?

– The portfolio that pro -inversion has for 2025 is quite auspicious, which borders the US $ 8,000 million, and has as important points the longitudinal highway of the Sierra, which joins five regions of the center of the country and links the road axis. It is an investment of US $ 1.6 billion.

Then there is a set of road corridors in several areas of the Sierra, which cross this longitudinal road. We are talking about US $ 1.1 billion. There are also app projects for wastewater treatment in eight cities in the country. It is a project of more than US $ 1 billion.

– Another breach of the fiscal rule is noticed. What impact could the deficit on infrastructure financing have?

– Correct the deficit has a fundamental objective, not to increase the risk of inflation. We have a good financial position, good reservations, a very proactive central bank management, but a fiscal deficit cannot be maintained outside the limits established by the rules of the Ministry of Economy.

That generates a pressure on inflation and uncertainty regarding the country’s ability to fulfill its international obligations. This deficit can affect the credit rating and increase the international financial cost for projects linked to Peru, not only for loans.

– What are urgent bureaucratic obstacles? Is the controversy with Miraflores settled after the TC failure?

– We must promote social housing where possible. It is false that in districts as in San Isidro there is no. What is the Santa Cruz residential complex, the Barboncito complex in Miraflores and the Torres de Limatambo in San Borja? What the TC has done is to put order what had already said: there must be social housing.

Municipalities cannot stop that and must respect legal certainty. The mayor (Carlos Canales) stopped works without waiting for the pronouncement in the second instance of the Ministry of Housing.

– How many projects were paralyzed at the closure 2024?

– It is not easy to know how many projects are now standing, but the most dramatic case was that of Miraflores, there were 100 projects that were in different stages of the approval process. Even, not everyone was linked to social housing programs. There were approved projects with sustainable building legislation.

– How much is the economic damage generated by crime to the sector?

– An IDB estimation (Inter -American Development Bank) said it was 3% of GDP the cost of security. If that figure is taken to the construction GDP, it is S/1.2 billion a year only in security.

– Capeco is part of the National Security Council. Do you trust Interior Minister? What effective plans have made them known?

– The issue is not the minister. If it changes, another comes, but if a realizable plan is not clearly fixed that understands that the problem is in criminal economies and not in the hitmen or those who steal cell phones, everything will fail. We are going to go to us and we will demand that you have an operational plan.

– Do you trust an effective plan in this government?

– You have to see to believe, but to see you have to be. Dialogue does not mean claudicar. We have an independent position. It is not a blank check. You have to make a strong reform in the police.

– What is the main objection of the creation of the Ministry of Infrastructure?

– 60% of public works is done with regional and local governments, and the vast majority of works are small. Creating a ministry to do the same that is supposed to do the Anin (National Infrastructure Authority) makes no sense.

In addition, all entities are not. For example, Sedapal, Essalud or the regulators. We are doing a rice with mango. Instead of concentrating on works, the infrastructure is being regulated in a single entity as if it were the same to build hospitals as trains. That is to return to the nineteenth century, to the Ministry of Development.