The United States and China at a commercial war: What will be the impact on the economy of Peru?

China and USAtwo of the world’s largest economies have launched the first blows of a commercial dispute that could cause adverse effects globally and in our country. These world powers are two of Peru’s main partners, with a participation of around 35% and 14% of national total trade in 2024.

Currently, both nations are engaged in tensions that have begun to climb. After a new 10% tariff on Chinese products sent to the United States, the Asian giant responded with a 15% tax on liquefied natural gas and coal, as well as a 10% tariff for oil for oil Crude, agricultural machinery and cars.

According to Manuel Carpio-Rivero, a Specialist in Supply Chain of Pacific Business School, the impact of this commercial war could cause the decrease in the economic activity of both countries, raise inflation and, with it, have more expensive raw materials and prices High.

“This commercial war between the two countries could generate reconfiguration in supplies chains, since there will be manufactures that will have to find other sources of supply or move their plants to other countries,” he added.

Despite the affectation to the demand for raw materials and other exports that Carpio-Rivero warns, there is also a space of opportunity to boost the Peruvian offices of copper, fruits and other products to the United States.

For his part, Carlos Aquino, director of the Asian Studies Center of the National University of San Marcos, said that the imposition of tariffs means the return of unilateralism and noted that the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that Peru has with states with states United does not guarantee protection against this type of measures.

“Trump is imposing unilateralism. Although it says otherwise, consumers of USA They will pay more for the products that are subject to tariffs. In the case of Peru, having a FTA does not assure you that Trump wants to renegotiate it, ”he argued.

Chinese deceleration

China’s economic activity recorded a setback in early 2025 and its growth during the last section of 2024 reached 4.7%, less than expected. This is explained by weak domestic demand, commercial tensions in the West, the fall of the real estate market and the high indebtedness of the private sector, according to the Central Reserve Bank.

In Aquino’s opinion, this deceleration would cause less demand for raw materials. However, he indicated that the purchasing power of its consumers is rising.

“In recent years, China He is buying more avocados and blueberries in Peru. He will no longer buy so many raw materials, but given his per capita income, which is much higher, his standard of living is improving, ”he said.