Economy Minister José Salardi must recover the fiscal trajectory, investments and address poverty, according to experts

José Salardi swore as the new head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in replacement of José Arista, who had earned the discontent and the request for resignation by regional governments.

This as a consequence of poor management of fiscal policy, when tightening the expense and cutting the budget items blindly, despite their experience as regional governor and Vice Minister of Finance, according to the former economy of Economy Luis Miguel Castilla to the Republic.

He added that Arista Arbildo could not handle the expectations, demands and restrictions that Peru has today. Tampo CO generated trust and had lost the credibility of the MEF in the conduct of economic policy. In that sense, he saw as positive the change towards a technician with experience.

For his part, former Minister Pedro Francke hinted that the exit of Arista, in contrast to the permanence of the Interior Minister, Juan José Santiváñez, could be related to political and personal factors within the government.

Main challenges

The first challenge for salardi is the Recovery of the fiscal trajectory After two years of breach of the rule, despite its relaxation. According to experts, you must adjust the expense amid constant pressures by laws of the Congre and social demands. The goal is to lower the deficit to 1% of the internal gross product (GDP).

In addition, the new minister would have a “respite” due to an exceptional increase in tax revenues from the income tax of mining companies, corresponding to 2024, but paid in 2025, which will give it resources to initiate the consolidation of accounts public

Second, Recover investments. For three years, Proinversion had stopped awarding projects, but with Salardi awarded record amounts in public-private partnerships, in concessions and in tax works. For Castile, this gives you the ability to manage long -term contracts.

However, investment growth does not reach expected rates due to the lack of administrative simplification, among other challenges. One of the main obstacles is citizen insecurity, which affects the risk and appetite to invest in the country.

The crime wave and violations of legal certainty, such as breach of arbitration failures, generate distrust and reduce incentives for investment, especially in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and agriculture. According to Francke, these areas are usually relegated in favor of large investment projects.

To promote more robust economic growth, it is essential that the government not only approves new norms, such as the “regulatory shock” of edge, but also guarantees the effective implementation of the existing ones.

In addition, a coherent policy is required that addresses the promotion of private investment and the improvement of the legal and citizen security climate. Only in this way can the current forecast of a limited growth of 5% in private investment be exceeded and foster a more favorable environment for all sectors.

As third challenge: Poverty. Although one or two percentage points are expected to fall, the levels are still high, and “exceed 25%, well above the prepaandemics records,” Castilla said.

Therefore, higher rates are needed and that social policies are not affected by politicization, in a pre -election context.

Arista left key pending such as fiscal consolidation, the implementation of the legal framework to accelerate in versions and the regulation of the pension reform, which must be approved this year. It is also a priority to advance in the adhesion to the OECD and expand the tax base to avoid fiscal balances.

In this 2025 a GDP close to 3%although it will depend on external causes, such as Trump’s protectionist policies and its impact on the price of copper, as well as internal factors such as the paralysis of shares due to the pre -electoral climate.

The ballast of informal employment

He Employment in Peruaccording to Pedro Francke, it is the main challenge. Many families resort to informal work to survive, and poverty is maintained above the levels of 2019. To combat it, it is key to generate better jobs, improve public health and strengthen social protection.

Francke also highlighted the need for more timely data on poverty, suggesting quarterly measurements, despite technical challenges such as seasonality. Highlighted the role of INEIwhich now offers more continuous data on employment, especially informal.