The Center for Business and Economic Research (CEBR) The United Kingdom improved Peru’s economic forecasts for the next 15 years, with a recovery in pre-pandemic growth levels by 2022 as a reflection of its “healthy public finances”.
According to the recent publication of the World Economic League Table 2022, which also foresees that the global economy will exceed $ 100 trillion for the first time in 2022, Peru is classified as an “upper middle income” country with a “relatively low debt burden”.
“As of 2021, it is estimated that Peru will have a GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) of US $ 13,410 and classifies as an upper middle income country. An 11% GDP contraction in 2020 was followed by a 10% expansion in 2021. Such growth would be insufficient to return production to pre-pandemic levels, with 2021 production still 2.1% below 2019 levels. Instead, the economy is expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2022″, The document refers.
The forecasting and economic policy research center argued in this line that the Peruvian government’s spending has been key to promoting the reactivation of the markets during a period of “weak demand from the private sector.”
“Public finances are in a healthy state, with public debt as a percentage of GDP declining to 35.0% in 2021, compared to 35.1% in 2020. A relatively low debt burden has provided the government with fiscal space to operate. a budget deficit of 5.4% in 2021. This deficit spending has been important in boosting demand in the economy during a period of weak demand from the private sector ”, he emphasizes.
The report, which has been replicated around the world for predicting that China will overtake the United States as the most important economy by 2030, places Peru in 49th place in its world economic ranking to 2036, matching its 2016 projection. .
“CEBR forecasts that Peru’s annual GDP growth rate will slow to an average of 3.7% between 2022 and 2026, before continuing to slow to an average of 3.2% between 2027 and 2036. This growth trajectory will place Peru, from 51st place in the table in 2021, to 49th in 2036, a gain of two places.”, He specified.
CEBR: Peru with high unemployment rates
On the other hand, the CEBR maintains that Peru’s “impressive” economic development since 2016 has been linked to population growth, even during the pandemic period.
“Although the pace of economic growth in recent years has been impressive, it is important to note that the population has also been growing rapidly, expanding at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2016 and 2021,” explains the center for higher studies. .
Finally, he pointed out that unemployment rates in our country continue to be “high”, which explains the pace of spending during the last year. You can review the full report at the following link.
“In 2021, the unemployment rate fell by 4.3 percentage points to 8.7%. However, the part of the workforce without work continues to be high, which will have been one of the factors that weighed on consumer spending and, therefore, economic growth during the last twelve months ”, the report states.
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