Business expectations about the performance of the economy, personnel hiring and investment returned to pessimistic territory in May, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). It is necessary to specify that the issuing entity sets a threshold of 50 points in its survey: above, the reading is positive and below, negative. These three aforementioned indicators fell to 48 for the next three months (short term).
In the rest of the criteria—sector, company situation and demand—both in the long term (12 months) and in the short term, the projections are encouraging. but only one indicator reaches 65 units: 12-month business situation. The rest, a maximum of 56 points.
Meanwhile, regarding the current situation, businessmen maintain that only in sales, production and purchase orders compared to last month, the scenario is auspicious.
They ask for changes in Produce
Daniel Hermoza, president of Mypes Unidas del Perú, puts a cold shoulder and assures that in practice, the situation is more discouraging, above all, for small businesses—which cover, according to official data, 99.2% of the business fabric. The union leader told La República that they will demand a change of parts in the Ministry of Production (Produce), led by Sergio González.
“We want a restructuring in Produce to solve the problem of mypes. 233,000 mypes closed last year. It is a historic figure in the last ten years. Not even with Pedro Castillo was there so much business mortality,” he said.
Hermoza assures that the mypes hardest hit are the manufacturing ones, linked to clothing, footwear and metalworking, due to lower demand and limited scope of state programs such as Purchases from Myperú.
In the opinion of the business spokesperson, There is a structural failure in the Executive to serve the mypes: They are not a priority for Produce. “The family with silver is fishing. All the policies, authorizations and fines go there. The minister only looks this way. We mypes are the poor and they don’t pay attention to us. Not only this minister, but from before,” he commented, and then mentioned that his union will propose the separation of the fishing sector into a portfolio so that they do not neglect the mypes.
Finally, Hermoza assured that political instability will continue to take its toll on the economy, especially in 2025, since the political actors who today “play against each other” with Dina Boluarte will stop defending her because “they will all be in the electoral campaign.”
What awaits GDP and the dollar?
According to the economic agents surveyed by the BCRP, the GDP would end the year between 2.5% and 2.7%—they differ from the 3% rate of the BCRP and MEF. Here, Hermoza alleges that the rebound is supported by the spending of savings such as the CTS and AFP, and not so much by greater production.
And, regarding the exchange rate, they estimate that it will close at S/3.75 and S/3.76.
Source: Larepublica
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