The International Monetary Fund maintained its growth forecasts for Peru at 2.5% for this year and 2.7% for 2025. And, although the economy “is recovering” after the effects of the El Niño phenomenon and the social unrest of early 2023, the IMF recognizes that the “persistent political uncertainty” decreases “the appetite to carry out the urgent reforms that will boost the potential growth” of our economy.
In that sense, The prospects for a rebound of up to 2.5% are supported by a strong recovery in agriculture, fishing and miningas well as a more flexible orientation of monetary policy.
Likewise, the balance of risks is balanced and Peru has ample reserves to face adverse shocks, although the outlook remains uncertain. In the short term, for example, the main internal risks are a possible intensification of political uncertaintysocial unrest and climate shocks.
The main external risks are weak growth in trading partners, volatility in raw material prices and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions.
Along these lines, while the nominal wages gradually recover their purchasing power and high political uncertainty hampers consumer and business confidence, only a moderate variation in consumption and private investment is expected. It is necessary to remember that the Minister of Economy and Finance, José Arista, pointed out on different occasions that aiming for a rate less than 3% would not be enough to improve monetary poverty figures. which this year reached 29% of the Peruvian population.
The data
Route. Peru abandoned the flexible credit program with the IMF and will not renew the precautionary resource line approved in 2020.
Source: Larepublica
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