After two consecutive months of growth, the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported that national production in March of this year registered a decrease of 0.28% compared to the same period of the previous year. However, productive sectors such as mining and hydrocarbons, commerce, transportation and accommodation and restaurants showed a slight increase.
According to the INEI, this negative report for the third month of the year was affected by two fewer days of productive activity, due to the celebration of Holy Week, which took place on March 28 and 29, among other aspects. To analyze the various factors that caused the fall in the gross domestic product (GDP), the projections and the situation of a sector that energizes the country’s economy such as restaurants, we spoke with two specialists about it.
GDP fell in March: what is its impact on the household economy?
As is public knowledge, the gross domestic product is the value of goods and services produced during a period of time in a territory. In this sense, the INEI reported that GDP in March contracted 0.28% compared to the same month last year due to the deterioration of sectors such as manufacturing, fishing, telecommunications and construction.
To this we must add lower mining production in this third month of the year and two days with a reduction in productive activity due to the Easter holidays. According to economist Armando Mendoza, the fishing sector has led the contraction between January and March, and manufacturing has accumulated 14 months of decline in production.
“We are talking about a continuous process of contraction in the manufacturing sector, which also has implications in the labor and social field. If this sector begins to contract, we are talking about that basically this contributes to the destruction of adequate employment and therefore to reducing labor income,” he explained to La República.
In addition to these areas, Mendoza addressed the impact of the reduction in GDP on the economy of Peruvian households. Regarding this, he indicated that “A contraction in the industrial sector implies the fall or deterioration of jobs and that in turn brings less income for families, which is also reflected in the increase in poverty and some indicators such as malnutrition and caloric insufficiency, etc. .”.
Finally, he said that there is a decline in business expectations for the Peruvian economy, according to the latest survey by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). Despite this, he maintains that it is possible to return to the path of growth of the gross domestic product, which is conditioned by external and internal factors.
It is worth mentioning that both the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the BCRP have estimated their economic growth projections at 3.1% and 3%, respectively. However, this could be affected by recent INEI data.
Accommodation and restaurants sector registered an increase, but sales in cevicherías fell
From the other side, the report from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported a slight increase in the productive sectors of mining and hydrocarbons (+2.6%), commerce (+1.82%), transportation (+2 .97%), accommodation and restaurants (+5.62%), services provided to companies, agriculture, electricity, gas and water, and other services.
In this sense, the table of the evolution of the monthly index of national production records that the accommodation and restaurants sector has a percentage variation of 3.58% between January and March, and 2.35% in the last year. This modification was based on the increase in the restaurants subsector by 5.32% and the accommodation subsector by 14.69%.
“The restaurant group was led by the categories of restaurants, tourist restaurants, chicken restaurants, fast food, coffee restaurants, cevicherias, chifas and pizzerias, in the face of promotions, discounts for mass media subscribers, opening of franchises and expansion of the menu” , reads the Inei report.
La República spoke with Javier Vargas, president of the Association of Marine and Related Restaurants of Peru (Armap), who pointed out that until April sales in these establishments were increasing. “But, lately, as a result of the published figure of poverty and political instability, it seems to be generating a certain fear in the public. Furthermore, those of us who are dedicated to the cevichería chain have practically had a drop of almost 25% in sales”he claimed
Finally, he said that the average consumption of a family in cevicherías would be around S/50, depending on the restaurant and the type of seafood offered. “If we do not do some campaign with the Government to promote fish consumption, there are many cevicherias that are going to be in danger of closing because a very strong winter is approaching. That is why we are proposing to the Ministry of Production to declare June like ceviche month,” he said.
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
