Fiscal Council finds “reasonable” GDP rebound to 3.1% in 2024, but sees “optimism” in 2025

Fiscal Council finds “reasonable” GDP rebound to 3.1% in 2024, but sees “optimism” in 2025

The group also pointed out a boost to temporary private spending that would generate greater liquidity as a result of the liberalization of AFP and CTS funds, “at the cost of lower future pensions and resources to cover periods of unemployment.”

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The Fiscal Council considered that the economic growth projection for 2024 (3.1%), described by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), is “reasonable.”

However, the working group highlighted that it is important to “keep in mind that a good part of this growth would fundamentally be due to transitory factors”, such as the expected statistical rebound after the negative elements that affected the economy in 2023.

He also pointed out a boost to temporary private spending that would generate greater liquidity as a result of the liberalization of funds from the Private Pension System (AFP) and Compensation for Time of Service (CTS), at the cost of lower future pensions and resources to cover periods of unemployment.

Regarding the expected growth in 2025 (3%), although the projection is marginally lower than what is contemplated in the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (3.1%), the Fiscal Council considers that it still shows an “optimistic” bias.

“Not only because the expected economic conditions would be less auspicious (especially a decline in global economic momentum), but also because of the presence of a significant negative base effect in that year,” he said.

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Written and digital press journalist, graduated from the Federico Villarreal National University (UNFV). Currently, in La República, where he writes about economics, with emphasis on hydrocarbons, mining and social conflict.

Source: Larepublica

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