After the economy fell in 2023 to its worst result in just over three decades – not counting the pandemic -, since Citi They estimate that for this year we will have a growth of 2.4%.
The reading of the global signature is consistent with the World Bank’s forecasts and IMF (2.5%), and far from that of the BCRP (3.0%).
Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s chief economist for Latin America, indicated that despite the political noise that surrounds the region, the market is not worried, since in countries like Peru the macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid.
For example, given the high-profile vacancy request involving President Dina Boluarte due to the Rolex case and the Adrianzén cabinet’s request for a vote of confidence in Congress, Citi points out that “we have already experienced enough scenarios like this” in recent years; although, With the constitutional reform that brought back bicameralism and re-election of parliamentarians, more stable policies were generated by limiting the presidential ability to dissolve the Legislature.
In short, global banking believes that Dina Boluarte will remain president of Peru until 2026 and does not expect a triggering role from Congress with the changes mentioned in the previous paragraph.
And the quality of life?
The estimated rate of 2.4% is far from our potential, which ranges between 3.5% and 4.0%. It is not “strong” growth, but it is auspicious considering that this year is one of recovery.
Meanwhile, Citi projects that the inflation It will culminate in 2024 at 2.4%, and considers the March downturn temporary, typical of “the noise caused by the education sector.”
Likewise, they hope that with the inexorable fall in reference interest rates of the central banks, private consumption begins to recover ground. It is worth adding that the BCRP forecasts a rate of 2.3% of private consumption for this year.
About the seventh withdrawal of AFP that is being cooked in Congress, indicated that this money would be allocated to the banking system as savings, since “the low and middle sectors would have already used their funds.” This exit “would weaken sovereign bonds in the short term,” he said.
Data:
The Peruvian economy fell 0.55% during 2023, its worst record since 1992 —without considering the pandemic—.
Inflation will close at 2.4% in 2024, indicates Citi. Lower interest rates will encourage private consumption.
Local GDP will vary by 2.9% by 2025, according to Citi. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), would be at 2.2%.
Source: Larepublica
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