In its first projection for 2024, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) maintained its outlook for the Peruvian economy for the current year and placed it at 3%, largely due to the moderation of risks around the El Niño phenomenon. after the fall of 0.55% in 2023.
The issuing entity expects a slowdown in exports, with growth in 2024 of 2.7%, compared to the forecast of 3.1% last December. This recalculation was moderated by the growth of private investment, which would have a jump from 1.8% to 2.3% (in 2023, private investment fell -7.2%).
This last data is tied to a slight improvement in the forecast for imports, which would have a variation of 2.7% to 3% for the current period.
Regarding the development of GDP by sectors, the BCRP expects a strong moderation in the hydrocarbons sector, which would advance only 1.5% in 2024 compared to the previous projection of 2.9%. However, the forecast scales from 3.8% to 4.2% in 2025.
“Bias [para este año] “We keep it rising, and not only we, but several investment banks say so,” said Julio Velarde, head of the BCRP. However, the banker acknowledged that this progress is “extremely low.”
Precisely, the economic studies departments of banks such as BCP and BBVA had anticipated expansions of 3% and 2.7%, respectively.
Production grew 1.37%
Regarding the development of production in January, growth was 1.37%, a weak rebound compared to the same period in 2023, a month in which it contracted by 1.12%, according to the INEI.
It should be noted that the January figure is the highest in 13 months, since December 2022. The sector that rebounded the most in the first month of the year was construction (13.16%), but based on a year-on-year drop in the 11.70% line.
National production during the last 12 months, between the periods of February 2023 and January 2024, presented a variation of -0.38%; while the seasonally adjusted index for January had a variation of 0.45% compared to the month of December.
In disaggregation, subsectors linked to demand, such as telecommunications and financial, weighed -2.87% and -3.34%, respectively. The sharpest fall was suffered by fishing, which fell -26.75% in the first month of the year, although the passage of The girl could boost it again, according to Velarde.
Inflation does not escape the target range
On the other hand, the president of the BCRP, Julio Velarde, maintained that inflation will remain within the target range in 2024 and will be close to 2.2% and 2% by 2025.
Since it jumped out of the range in 2021 (6.4%), inflation has remained at peaks of 8.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. “Since we have had a target, we have never had a period of inflation so out of range,” said Velarde.
Meanwhile, core inflation (which does not consider food or energy) would advance 2.4% in Peru in 2024, although with a moderation in the price of goods (1.3%) and services (2.9%).
Source: Larepublica
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