The relative political and social stability, as well as the dissipation of weather anomalies, which so far have not had a significant impact on economic activity, caused BBVA Research to raise its forecast for the year from 2.0% to 2.7%. growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) for this year.
Francisco Grippa, Principal Economist of BBVA Research in Peru, recalled that after the economy contracted by 0.6% at the end of 2023, the sectors with the greatest decline in that period are expected to have a more positive performance in 2024. In that sense, he stressed that the fishing – which fell by almost 20% – would be favored by the start of the first anchovy fishing season in the central-southern area, and if a second fishing season with a “normal” quota is added to that. This sector would grow between 17% and 18%.
“(In 2024) we would have a stronger rebound than the one thought three months ago, and it would be more accentuated mainly because the Coastal Niño, according to the forecasts for March and April, but also what was observed in January and February, will have a less strong impact on the economy,” Grippa said during a press conference.
According to the analysis of the banking entity, It is observed that climatological anomalies tend to dissipate and the forecasts for the coming months are better than those taken into account in the macroeconomic scenario three months ago (in terms of intensity and duration).
On the international side, BBVA Research projects that the global environment will continue to support the Peruvian economy. Among these factors, the moderate growth of the main trading partners, such as the US and China, stands out.
By 2025, the estimated economic growth It is lower than the forecast three months ago made by BBVA Research, an advance of 2.9% is expected and in December it was thought to be 3.5%.
Source: Larepublica
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