Inflation escapes the BCRP goal and reaches 3.30%

The high temperatures recorded in February affected poultry productsas well as readjustments in some rates, such as in the case of drinking water, and brought with them a rebound in February inflation.

According to the report from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second month of the year was 0.56%, the highest rate in 10 years for that month, according to pointed out Juan Carlos Odarfrom Phase Consultants.

With this result, the interannual inflation rate increased from 3.0% in January to 3.30%, once again being above the target range of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, which ranges between 1% and 3%.

“This interrupts the downward trend in annual inflation: it jumped from 3.02% in January to 3.3% now,” said Odar.

In the same way, The increase in the month of analysis in Metropolitan Lima has been greater than the national average increase (0.41%). The greatest increases were observed in Cajamarca (0.76%) and Tumbes (0.64%).

Upside factors

The products that had the greatest impact on the February CPI were gutted chicken, residential drinking water, chicken eggs, strawberries and horse mackerel.

According to the Midagri Supply and Price Information System (SISAP), the price of eviscerated chicken (to the consumer) has skyrocketed since February 2, when on average it was sold for S/10.09 per kilo in markets retailers, while in the last week it reached an average price of S/12.07.

In the case of eggs, February began at S/7.24 on average at the retail level, and closed the second month of the year at S/8.80 per kilo. Forecasts from the Peruvian Poultry Association (APA) indicate that the price of this food will reach its peak at the end of March or beginning of April.

What’s coming

According to BBVA Research, the increase in the year-on-year inflation rate in February, something that has not occurred for more than a year, is partly explained by the warm conditions that occurred throughout the month.

“These anomalies will tend to dissipate in the future., according to the forecasts of specialized entities (…). We estimate that inflation will soon resume its downward path, returning to the target range in the coming months and even entering it,” the entity stressed.

Likewise, he considered that the diversion of the inflation of the target range is transitory and that exchange rate pressures have been contained in recent days.

“At BBVA Research we continue to anticipate that limited rate cuts will continue in the short term, with a reduction of 25 basis points in March,” he highlighted.

Rates for the first two months: the highest in two years

The INEI pointed out that the accumulated variation of the first two months of 2024 was 0.58%, resulting in an average monthly variation of 0.29%.

In comparison with the accumulated rates for the same period (January to February) of previous years, it has been showing a higher level than that observed in 2023, which was 0.52%, and in 2022, which was 0. .35%.

Another of the sectors that suffered a moderate increase was alcoholic beverages.tobacco and narcotics, which increased by 1.84%.

This was explained by the increase in beer (white beer 2.8% and dark beer 1.5%), distilled beverages such as whiskey 1.2% and pisco 0.1%. On the contrary, wine fell by -0.2%.