Mining investment would grow 6% this year, to around US$5 billion, although it would still be below pre-pandemic levels, estimated the Scotiabank Economic Studies Department.
This recovery would be explained at the beginning in the construction of mostly brownfield projects (which are developed in the same place and in parallel to the main process). In 2024, the potentially closest—and largest—investments are expected to be the Toromocho Phase II Expansion and Antamina Replacement, Corani (Bear Creek) and Chalcobamba Phase I (Las Bambas).
To them would be added the continuity of San Gabriel (Buenaventura), which is currently under construction.
In the first quarter of this year alone, the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) estimates average investments of US$3 billion.
The projection for the current is provided after, at the end of 2023, mining investment fell by 10%, accumulating investments of the order of US$4,715 million. This was its lowest level since the pandemic (2020) and is still far from the almost US$6 billion of investment recorded in 2019; that is, before the global impact of Covid-19. The item that contracted the most was precisely infrastructure at -17.4%.
It is important to highlight that the behavior of mining investments in 2023 occurred in a context of the completion of the Quellaveco project (Anglo American) and the lack of start of construction of new projects.
A better 2024
To reverse the 2023 trend, according to Scotiabank, the good prices of metals such as gold and copper will also help, “which we project for this year and 2025 will be at levels that would normally promote mining investment.”
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) estimates that this year the price of copper will be US$377 per pound, and US$386 in 2025. In the case of gold, the improvement is substantial compared to 2023, since this year It would reach US$2,044 per ounce and would rise to US$2,148 in 2025.
On the other hand, the Institute of Mining Engineers of Peru (IIMP) hopes to see the green light for the projects: Raura Replacement (Minera Raura), Romina (Minera Chungar), Hauncapetí Expansion (Minera Lincuna) and Antapaccay Replacement (Antapaccay). However, they could still require the approval of some permits, since practically several are new to the project portfolio.
The sum of the aforementioned projects, the good prices and the reinvigoration of the sector – expressed by Minister Rómulo Mucho – would help investments grow by no less than 5.1%, as projected by the BCRP in its December 2023 Inflation Report.
Certification of exploration projects
- The General Directorate of Mining Environmental Affairs (DGAAM) of Minem granted environmental certification to 15 mining exploration projects that represent an investment of US$92.7 million.
- Among the projects, the modification through the Sustaining Technical Report (ITS) of the Semi-detailed Environmental Impact Study (EIA-sd) of Tambomayo in Arequipa and the modification of the EIA-sd of the Galeno project in Cajamarca stand out.
Source: Larepublica
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