Dollar will remain above S/3.80 until the end of March

The exchange rate closed this Wednesday at S/3.8750, which represented a slight decline of 0.23% compared to Tuesday’s close when it was listed at S/3.8840; However, since January 29—that is, almost three weeks—the currency has been above S/3.80 and could maintain this trend until March, according to Renta4 SAB analysis.

Yesterday in the parallel market, the currency was quoted at S/3.87 for purchase and S/3.88 for sale. While at the windows of the Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP) the purchase reached S/3.8070 and the sale reached S/3.9380.

During the day, the offer came from corporates and took the dollar to a minimum level of S/3.8640 and the demand for maturities of foreign exchange swaps sale for S/160 million. US$462 million were traded in the market at an average price of S/3.8724.

Furthermore, the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) placed foreign exchange swaps for S/500 million and made a direct sale of US$12 million at S/3.8750, as reported by the stockbroker.

The gap

For Asvim Asencios, a trader at Divisas de Renta4 SAB, the upward trend in the exchange rate in recent weeks is due to internal and external factors.

The Federal Reserve (FED) of the United States continues to maintain its reference interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50%, added to the recent inflation data, the possibility of a cut is increasingly distant and could only occur in June , says Asencios.

While in Peru the BCRP continues to cut the reference rate – today it stands at 6.25% and is projected to close the year at 4% – because inflation is already in the target range of 3%.

“So, as this gap between our interest rate narrows, with that of USA, causes investors to prefer to invest abroad and there is an outflow of dollars from the country. Because companies demand more dollars, then the price goes up,” he explains.

Furthermore, consider that it is unlikely that we will reach S/3.90 when the BCRP has been intervening with currency swaps. This could only occur due to eventual internal shocks such as a political crisis.

For people who have to make payments in dollars, the specialist recommends being constantly updated on exchange rate fluctuations and take advantage of the small drops that could be registered.

Data

• Europe. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0720 amid a flurry of economic data from the euro zone. Previously, it hit a three-month low of US$1.0695, according to Reuters.
• Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose 4.1% to US$51,612, reaching its highest level since December 2021 above US$52,000.l