The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday modified its economic expectations in our country, to the point that they now foresee a growth in the PBI 10% for this year (8.5% projected last April).
While for 2022 they foresee that the economy will reach 4.6% (before it was 5.2%); However, despite the 0.6 percentage point decline, Peru will remain one of the strongest economies in South America, with an average growth of 2.3%.
The development of The Peruvian economy on a continental level is surpassed only by the United States (5.2%) and Canada (4.9%).
Recover from what was lost
During 2020, the Peruvian economy contracted 11.1%, and the growth forecast for this year will respond to a rebound effect, typical of the resumption of productive activities paralyzed by the pandemic.
However, the economist and PUCP professor José Oscátegui explains to La República that the figures announced by the IMF —Which resemble those projected by the world Bank, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (see infographic) – anticipate that “yes, it would be recovering, indeed, what was lost.”
Oscátegui emphasizes that the injection of bonds to vulnerable populations by the Government, as well as the “net activation” of the economy, is the basis of the recovery.
In that line, considering the 4.6% growth of the IMF, it would be exceeding levels not seen in eight years, period in which the Peruvian economy did not exceed 3.99%.
“Undoubtedly, the more stable the policy, there is also tranquility in the economy,” adds Oscátegui, referring to the arrival of Mirtha Vásquez to the Presidency of the Council of Ministers after the resignation of Guido Bellido.
Oscátegui argues that while the vaccination campaigns progress, sectors as important as tourism will regain their weight, which “will be an impetus for the economic recovery of the country.”
How will the Peruvian economy fare in the short term?
Controlled inflation
The IMF also stated that inflation in Peru will close this year at 3.1%, a margin slightly higher than the target range established by the BCRP (between 1% and 3%); Although by 2022 it would reach 2.5%, ranking among the lowest in America, along with Ecuador (2.1%), Bolivia (2.7%) and Canada (2.6%).
It should be noted that from October of last year to September of this year, the inflation rate at the national level stands at 5.38%.
Even the president of the BCRP, Julio Velarde, has calmed the waters, emphasizing that “inflation will converge to the target range.”
The downward forecast for inflation in Peru differs from what is expected in the region, since according to the IMF’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, Latin America will have an inflation of 9.3% in 2021 and will carry “the highest price increase in the world.”
By 2022, they estimate that inflation in Latin America will contract to 7.8%, which will continue to be a high figure.
“It is important that countries adapt their monetary actions to the specific circumstances of each country,” he noted.
Peru reduces its unemployment rate
The latest IMF report also foresees that unemployment in Peru will close this year at 8.7%, and by 2022 it will fall to 6.5%.
Currently the unemployment rate in South America is more pronounced in Brazil (13.8%), Colombia (14.5%) and Argentina (10.0%). For next year the variation in these countries would be less than one percentage point.
During 2020, in official figures, in our country more than 2.2 million jobs were lost.
Data
Progress. The growth of the Peruvian economy, 4.6% for 2022, also exceeds the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, estimated at 3.0%.
Scope. Peru would also pass the average of advanced Europe (4.4%) and emerging (3.6%).
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