In 2023, it was confirmed that Peru was in an economic recession after registering falls in GDP for 2 consecutive quarters. However, organizations such as world Bank and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) predict that this new year the country’s economy will grow by at least 2.5% and 3%, respectively.
For its part, the National Institute of Economics (IPE) points out that the country would have an economic boost of only 1.9%. This is due to possible improvements in private spending, the reduction of inflation and the presence of optimal financing conditions that favor investment. In this framework, some regions in the north, south and center of the country could lead the economic growth rates in the next 2 semesters.
What are the regions of Peru that would have the greatest economic growth in the first half of 2024?
In dialogue with La República, IPE senior analyst Teodoro Crisolucion explained that at least 13 regions closed 2023 negatively. Of these, the southern area of Peru was one of the most affected.
“First, the year (2023) began with a climate of high social complexity that paralyzed activities, especially mining, in the south,” he stated. Added to this, the agricultural crisis and political instability negatively influenced productivity.
If last year’s conditions are compared to those of 2024, it is expected that there will be a rebound in mining and agriculture, explained Crisolucion. This way, The regions that would have the greatest growth in the first semester would be in the southern zone. Specifically, Puno and Cusco.
The rebound in agricultural production would contribute to the economic growth of the southern regions of Peru. Photo: InfoAgro
“Probably, the region that has fallen the most in 2023 has been Puno. Thus, in the absence of conflict or new climate crises that affect its agriculture, a good part of these regions should lead the reactivation of economic activity (especially during the first half of 2024),” said the representative of the Peruvian Institute of Economics.
This would also compensate for the slowdown in economic growth that Moquegua would have in 2024, according to Crisolucion. Last year, this department led regional growth. For example, in the first quarter of 2023, its economy grew by 46% as a result of the activities of the Quellaveco mining company, according to the IPE. “They are going to significantly moderate their growth after having had growth of around 30% in 2023,” said the expert.
The IPE senior analyst also mentioned that other regions that would lead Peru’s economic growth would be La Libertad, Lambayeque, Piura ―in the north―, and Áncash, in the central part. This is thanks to the fact that they would have greater production and trade in agricultural and fishing production, and the rebound in the construction sector. However, this will depend on climate crises or other conflicts not occurring.
Fishing activity would have a positive impact on the economic growth of certain regions in northern Peru. Photo: The Republic
What would be the economic situation of Lima in 2024, according to the IPE?
Lima would have ended 2023 with four quarters of consecutive falls, Crisologist warned. “The base scenario for Lima is that it should recover to the extent that private spending recovers this year. To the extent that investment and private consumption recover, especially in the second half, it is likely that we will see a strong recovery of its economic activity,” he explained.
Source: Larepublica
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