After the inexorable fall in Peruvian GDP expected in 2023, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras, recognized that potential has been lost.
“Peru’s growth capacity has been significantly reduced. The latest estimates speak of a potential growth of around 2%.”he mentioned during the installation of the Renewable Energy Executive Board.
Likewise, the official stressed that before the pandemic the growth was 3%, but now we have 2%. “This reveals the need for reforms,” he said.
It is necessary to specify that Contreras Mirandas predicted at the end of last year that the Peruvian GDP would grow on average 3.1% from 2024 to 2026.
An insufficient economic rebound
Entities like ECLAC, BBVA Research, the Economic Studies Area of the BCP and the IPE, expect the Peruvian economy to grow – due to the rebound effect after the recession – between 1.9% and 2.5%. These projections carry a downward bias due to the threat of El Niño and internal factors such as political instability. Only the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) and the MEF foresee a rate of 3.0%.
Even so, the former Minister of Economy, Luis Miguel Castillawarns that this rebound will not be enough to contain the increase in poverty, hunger and underemployment since business expectations take time to recover on a positive path.
“It won’t be enough at all. I don’t even know if it will reach 3%, because to do so you have to have some optimism. There has to be a little more political stability to recover (business) expectations. Besides, this rebound is going to be compared to a very bad 2023.”commented for La República.
Source: Larepublica
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