He dollar closed 2023 at S/3.7070, which implies an annual variation of -2.63% compared to the end of last year, when it ended at S/3.807, and -7.12% compared to 2021, when It stood at S/3.9910 (see graph).
In this way, unlike other countries in the region, the Peruvian sol has maintained an appreciation against the US currency, placing above 23 emerging market currencies and close to seventh place.
Other countries, according to information from Bloomberg, have presented a decrease in the foreign monetary unit. In the case of Argentina, the depreciation has reached 356.44%, while in Chile it reached 4.01%. In contrast, Colombia and Mexico have presented an increase of 20.40% and 13.11%, respectively.
Thus, Peru is located above neighboring countries such as Argentina and Chile, but still below Colombia and Mexico, which have had the best performance.
“With respect to Latin America, despite the local political crisis and global problems, the sun is quite strong and for the second year in a row it appreciates with respect to the dollar,” Omar Azañedo, economist and CEO of Noncash, told La República.
Dollar trend
During 2023, the dollar has shown a tendency towards volatility.
For January it closed at S/3,638, in May it rose to S/3,838, for September it reached S/4,133 and finally, in the last days of December, it has had three consecutive sessions with increases of 0.19%, 0.8 % and 0.5%.
According to the economist Enrique Díaz, the movement of National currency between S/3.60 and S/3.90 is due to the constant situations that the country has gone through and that have caused a “gradual deterioration” of the exchange rate.
Among them is the climate factor, such as the effects of the El Niño Phenomenon, and the decline of sectors such as fishing and agro-exports.
However, despite this, the sun has managed to appreciate against the dollar.
Projections
Another point that has favored is the situation in the United States, where there is currently no “bullish expression” due to the concerns that the country is going through. Added to this is an effective exchange rate policy in Peru and the macroeconomic fundamentals that have managed to stabilize the Peruvian currency. However, the current recession and mistrust could affect us in the long term.
“We are currently in a drop zone, and you are living off the push of previous years. There are risk factors that can cause us to no longer have a good positioning,” Díaz said.
Dollar expectation for 2024
According to the economists consulted, the exchange rate next year will still remain between S/3.70 and S/3.80. However, for the second half of 2024, the situation could improve if the inflation target range is reached and the BCRP continues to lower reference rates, which have gone from 7.75% to 6.75%. in recent months.
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
