CCL: Peruvian GDP has not managed to exceed 4% growth in 10 years

Peru has not managed to exceed 4% economic growth since 2013 (not including 2021), warned Óscar Chávez, head of the IEDEP of the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL).

This figure is important because, according to all economists, A sustained annual growth rate of 4% is necessary to sustain the entire wage bill, which is estimated to increase annually with the incorporation of 200,000 young people into the labor market, as well as in the quality of life of people and the reduction of poverty.

Along these lines, the CCL projects that 2023 will end with a contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.5%. Mainly, due to low construction (-8.7%) and manufacturing (-5.8%) due to political uncertainty and social protests. Likewise, adverse weather events in agriculture and fishing also had negative performances of -2.9% and -16.8%, respectively.

In contrast, other items, such as mining and hydrocarbons (7.7%), commerce (2.5%) and services (0.3%), have increased, contributing to a more moderate recession.

What are the growth expectations for 2024?

By 2024, the IEDEP of the CCL projected an advance of 2.6%since most sectors would have moderate growth due to an economic rebound effect and a not so strong El Niño phenomenon.

In this way, manufacturing would have an increase of 3.8%, while construction would reach 3.6%. Meanwhile, mining and hydrocarbons would advance limitedly by 2.7%, and commerce and services would maintain an expansion of 3.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

In addition, private consumption would rebound by 2.9% and investment by 1.9%, which also implies an increase in exports of 3.7%.

“Stopping the recession does not mean reactivation or sustained growth. Stopping the recession will prevent the collapse of businesses, the fall in employment and the risk that the real sector will infect the financial sector and trigger delinquencies in loans to companies, consumer loans and mortgages,” added Chávez.