The latest survey of macroeconomic expectations from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) reflects that business confidence remains, in most of its indicators, in negative territory.
Six perspectives are measured: on the economy, the sector, the situation of your company, product demand, hiring of personnel and investments. If they exceed 50 points, they are considered optimistic and, if they are below, pessimistic: all in the short term – that is, three months – are discouraging.
Although in the long term – 12 months – the only negative is the business situation, this should be interpreted as a wake-up call to the Government because the effects of the prolonged crises are not being resolved, Daniel Hermoza, director of Mypes, warns La República. United States of Peru.
Thus, the business confidence indicator reflects that the first year of Dina Boluarte’s government has not brought any substantial change compared to her predecessor Pedro Castillo: the current expectations they see for the business, sales, production, expected demand, purchase orders vs. the previous month, and days of unwanted inventories are also in red. There have been more than two and a half years in which expectations are carried by pessimism.
Political handle missing
Economist Juan José Marthans points out that we are going through a “quite delicate scenario” considering the continuous decline in the private investmentmainly, to the point that it no longer matters so much how much the economy closes, because the growing generalized pessimism in the short and long term is fueled by political noise and sociopolitical instability.
How to get out of the mud? Marthans proposes that civil society, unions and business associations must establish a kind of minimum development plan in infrastructure and private investment that is fully consensual and that establishes commitments “regardless of who governs” so that the country does not stagnate like now.
The former head of the SBS remembers that El Niño historically hits between 2% or 3% of GDPand, if a 3% rebound is expected by 2024, in general a variation close to 0% would end again.
Meanwhile, Hermoza argues that the ministerial team headed by Alberto Otárola has only ensured its reputation and trust, but not to earn that of the business community.
“The cabinet (Otárola) does not work based on the country’s great economic problems. He has left alone MEF and they don’t see it as a team. That is our perception. They worked for their stability. “They are not responsible for all (the tragedies), but they cannot solve them either,” he added.
MEF recognized that the crisis does not help
Beyond the proposals to mitigate the slowdown through the promotion of spending and the reduction of permits and exemptions for business sectors, the Minister of Economy, Alex Contreras, is aware of the damage caused by the political crisis. “We want to recover the growth capacity of recent years, but the political context has not helped, rather it has taken away,” he said a few days ago.
The MEF foresees an average annual rate of 3.1% between 2024 and 2026. For this year, there is no light despite the reduction on other fronts.
The word
Juan José Marthans, Executive President of Globokas Peru
“There is a feeling of generalized growing pessimism both three months and annually. The deterioration is explained by political noise, and the possibilities of recreating investment and production are very short.”
Figures
- -0.1% or 1.0% would close the GDP this year, according to the recent BCRP sample.
- 18 indicators make up the expectations survey: only five are in the optimistic range.
Source: Larepublica
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