Migration to La Aurora almost doubled the population of Daule: which 25 cantons in the country saw the most population growth and why?

The only canton in Ecuador where the population has almost doubled in the last twelve years is Daule, in Guayas, which includes the urban parish of La Aurora, one of the urban markets of Greater Guayaquil.

The population of Daule grew from 119,719 to 222,446 from 2010 to 2022, representing an increase of 85.8%, according to census data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC).

The majority is the population that lived within the cantons of Guayaquil, Samborondón or Durán and that moved to La Aurora, in Daule, in housing projects that were developed starting in the 21st century.

La Aurora, in Daule, Guayas, is the parish where the number of voters for the elections increases the most: those voters left Guayaquil

Among them is 41-year-old Estefany, who in 2017 bought a house in the urbanization of La Joya in the parish of Dauleño in La Aurora in search of a better quality of life. “I looked at prices in several places and it was the best option there, plus it was a gated community with a pool.”

His brother, on the other hand, moved from the center of Guayaquil, where he lived, to Villa del Rey, another of La Aurora’s gated communities.

One of the problems, Estefany says, is the traffic generated during the morning rush hour when everyone leaves urban facilities for their jobs, which are mostly in Guayaquil, Durán or Samborondón.

“That’s the negative, you have to leave early, depending on where you are, up to 60 minutes before check-in time,” he says.

If the population of Daula in 2022 is compared with the census of 2001, there is an increase of 160%.

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The number of houses in this canton increased from 39,787 in 2010 to 79,523 in 2022, which means an increase of 100%, the sixth largest in the country in this area, according to the agency’s official data.

There are 68,412 homes registered in Daule, which is more than double the number in 2010. The parameter to measure whether the population growth rate corresponds to the orderly process is the percentage living in the house in the payment process. This increased from 15.9% to 27.1%.

Palora, in the province of Morona Santiago, is the second canton with the largest increase in the number of inhabitants (73.8%). However, the percentage of households that live in their own home or pay for it reaches 53.8%, which is less than the one recorded twelve years ago when it was 65.8%. This means that part of the population that migrated to this area rents a house or lives in a rented house.

The need for a safe house motivates migration from Guayaquil and Quito to the surrounding cantons. But the population also moves for economic reasons in search of better employment opportunities, experts agree.

Ximena Garzón Villalba, researcher and former health minister, points out that population growth is multifactorial. “One of the motives is precisely insecurity, increasing employment opportunities in cantons where the population is growing, also better environmental conditions, perhaps greater access to basic services or healthcare.”

Added to these factors is a wave of migration from Venezuela and Colombia attracted by the dollar currency, which provides greater purchasing power in their home countries, he adds.

These are the 25 urban sectors of Guayaquil with the highest number of voters

The cantons with a large extractive mining activity are part of the list of 25 in which the number of inhabitants has increased the most in the last twelve years.

Palora, for example, joins El Pangua (in Zamora Chinchipe), the district where the population has increased the most due to the presence of the Mirador open-pit mine project, which mainly extracts copper on a large scale.

Fifteen of the 25 largest cantons are located in Amazonian provinces that exploit oil or ore deposits. Added to this is Camilo Ponce Enríquez (in Azuay), the only one from the Sierra region to enter this one top and which also has mining exploitation in its territory.

“(Because of) job opportunities, not necessarily formal, but people knowing they can generate income for their families, that’s a significant factor,” says Garzón.

Eight of the nine remaining cantons are from the Costa region, including Samborondón, Playas, Isidro Ayora, and Durán, whose population is increasing due to the development of Guayaquil’s urban conglomerate, such as Daule.

The three remaining coastal inhabitants are Jaramijó and Montecristi, in the province of Manabí, whose population is based on the Manta fishing industry. The urban areas of these three cantons are combined and form a conglomerate.

And the last one on the Coast is Santa Elena, whose population has increased by 30.3% in the last twelve years anchored in the development of tourism and fishing.

While Isabela (in the Galapagos) does top 25 with an increase of 38.5% also driven by the tourism industry.

Guayaquileños almost tripled the register of La Aurora, in Daule, from 2017 to this 2023 election.

Updated demographic data affects service coverage

“It is important that population censuses are carried out more often, because at the moment when the number of inhabitants to be served is unknown, the coverage percentage remains extremely low and circles of poverty arise around the centers of cities. They have no water, electricity, health services or transportation, which are sources of violence,” says Garzón.

When implementing public policies, the authorities must take into account population growth and the way residents are distributed, he adds.

Regular vaccination of children under 5 and even the immunization process for the prevention of COVID-19 was partially implemented during Garzón’s period as Minister of Health (between 2021 and 2022) with INEC’s demographic projection based on the 2010 census.

“We didn’t know how many children under the age of 5 there were in the country, so we calculated how many children we needed to vaccinate based on projections, but we couldn’t find them anywhere. We even bought doses according to these calculations, we swept from house to house and did not find them, now we know that in reality the number of children was lower.”

The lack of accurate data on the population by age meant a waste of resources. “In our case, we bought vaccines for children that did not exist,” says Garzón.

The National Survey on Child Malnutrition (ENDI) conducted at that time allowed us to have a number more in line with reality. “That’s where they realize the population projections were inaccurate.”

The distribution of the budget to the municipal decentralized autonomous authorities (GAD) depends on the distribution of the model of territorial equality, and not only on the population, indicates José Gabriel Castillo, former deputy minister of economy and director of the Experimental Economics Laboratory of the Escuela. Superior Politécnica del Coastline (Espol).

“For example, the model distributes less if tax revenues and oil sales are reduced regardless of whether the canton’s population has increased.”

Lower revenues from taxes and oil imply a reduction in allocations to municipalities

The fact that a territory has a larger population than in 2010, like most cantons in the country, does not necessarily determine a larger allocation for that municipality. “Let’s assume a scenario in which tax revenues are the same in two reference years, but only the distribution of the population changes. In that case, resources are reallocated based on that distribution, and that can mean an increase for the population that grew faster than others.”

However, adds Castillo, in practice, anything happens. “For example, this year tax revenues will be lower than last year, that is, there are fewer funds for distribution. So, Even if the population grew more than in other years, it is indeed possible that the allocation of resources does not exceed that of other years“.

The most likely scenario for this year is that tax and oil revenues will decrease, which will also decrease allocations for GAD.

The distribution of resources from the central government to the sectional governments is based on the current census, not based on population calculations, Castillo added.

“In this case, the Ministry of Economy and Finance had to revise the territorial equality model with new data (from the 2022 census) to determine the new distribution.”

Population growth must be planned to define development plans that allow expanding the coverage of basic services and covering these new needs, explains Castillo.

Municipalities are responsible for cantonal planning and territorial organization according to the Organic Code of Territorial Organization, together with parish councils.