In the month in which the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) recognized that the country is in recession, the expectations of local businessmen worsened and reached the lowest levels of January 2023, when the economy was besieged by high social conflict.
According to the recent BCRP Macroeconomic Expectations Survey, most indicators of business expectations and the current situation were reduced in October compared to the previous month. Of the 18 indicators of the month, 5 are in the optimistic range.
Business expectations regarding the situation of the country economy In the next 3 months they fell from 40 to 39 points; while, after 12 months, they went from 52 to 50.
Likewise, the expectations of the local business community regarding the sector where they work Their business dropped from 43 to 41 units in 3 months, and from 53 to 51 in 12 months.
As for the business In itself, businessmen’s expectations for the next moving quarter fell from 48 to 45 points; while, on a balance until October of next year, they fell from 59 to 57 points.
The expectations of product demand For the next 3 months (in the middle of the Christmas campaign and end-of-year holidays) they went from 51 to 45 points. For the next 12 months, sales expectations fell from 62 to 58.
Of course, this is reflected on the recruitment. The Peruvian businessmen surveyed raised their expectations of increasing their payroll in the next 3 months, going from just 46 to 47 units. However, within 12 months it fell from 53 to 52.
Finally, the expectations of investment of businessmen in October continued to plummet and scored 44 points in 3 months, from 45 registered a month ago. For the next rolling year, he went from 54 to 53 units.
BCRP business expectations survey. October 2023.
BCRP: sales and production fell in October
In addition to future expectations, how did business owners do in October? According to the BCRP survey, the current business situation remained in pessimistic territory (44 points) compared to the previous month, in line with an expected demand that did not move either (33 points).
However, the sales score went from 47 to 43 points, while the production score plummeted from 48 to 44. It should be noted that the days of unwanted inventories (an indicator of low product turnover) went from 8 to 11.
Source: Larepublica
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