Bukele’s El Salvador is the new route most often used as a stepping stone to the United States: 104,003 Ecuadorians have left the country this year and have not returned

Migration abroad continues to be the path chosen by Ecuadorians who cannot secure income within the country to sustain their economies and those of their families. The number of citizens who left Ecuador and did not return between January and September of this year totaled 104,003, according to data from the Ministry of the Interior.

This number already exceeds the total number of non-returnees in each of the entire years of the period 2004-2021. If the trend continues, the number of Ecuadorians who did not return during the entire year 2022 will be exceeded, which was 113,931.

It may even be surpassed in 2003 when 127,135 did not report re-entry after leaving the country. It was one of the last years of the large exodus of Ecuadorians abroad due to the economic crisis that intensified in 1999 and led to the established dollarization. in January 2000.

The numbers reflect that A new wave of migration is underway from 2021says Leonardo Izquierdo, professor of economics at the Private Technical University of Loja (UTPL), which has not been seen since the period 1999-2003.

In the last five years (five years), a total of 697,710 Ecuadorians left the country and did not return.

While In the period 2001-2023. (by September) there are already almost 300,000 of them who have not returned..

Carlos Estarellas, former undersecretary of foreign affairs and professor of international law at the Catholic University of Santiago de Guayaquil, confirms that he had never seen so many Ecuadorians who had lost hope of living in Ecuador.

“There is hopelessness that was not there even during the time of (Jamilo) Mahuad (who ruled between January 1998 and January 2000, at the height of the economic crisis) or during the pandemic, because the insecurity is huge, so almost everyone wants to leave the country”.

Two dangerous routes of irregular migration chosen by those who decide to leave Ecuador and go to the United States without a visa

The October 15 election becomes a turning point as the new president has the responsibility to reverse this migration trend. “The situation in Ecuador is so difficult that a good choice is crucial. The person who wins has a huge responsibility, I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes, I hope they live up to the leader and achieve it,” adds Estarellas.

The choice is between Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Alliance (ADN) movement and Luisa González of the Civic Revolution of Koreanism.

“The Ecuadorian believes that the government is of no use, that justice is of no use, that the National Assembly was of no use, that the Council for Citizen Participation is of no use either, that is, it is a pandemonium in which everyone is arguing and every day it is getting worse, there is no work and on top of that they kill us, so they leave the country”, he says.

What are the most used migration routes this year?

El Salvador is the country from which the most Ecuadorians have not returned, overtaking Nicaragua, which means that both Central American nations serve as stepping stones in their desire to enter the US.

A total of 19,940 Ecuadorians traveled to El Salvador and did not return this year, fifteen times more than the 1,277 who did not return from that country during 2022.

Most of these compatriots leave for tourist reasons. At least that’s what they say when leaving Ecuador. El Salvador is in the global spotlight because its president, Nayib Bukele, a right-wing populist, is implementing a policy of fighting criminal organizations, which has led to a decrease in the crime rate. But it also faces complaints of human rights abuses.

Getting to know Bukele’s El Salvador is the purpose, say the travelers, but there are many who do not return from the supposed trip as a tourist.

Agencies report trips to El Salvador at a price of $299. Most of those who leave leave there and cross Guatemala and Mexico to enter the United States.

Nicaragua used to be the route most used by Ecuadorians to the US, but that changed this year.

A migrant from the province of Cañar who chose the route to El Salvador claims that coyotes told him that Nicaragua is no longer profitable because the country has been militarized due to a revolt by residents against its leftist president, Daniel Ortega.

Recently, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) expressed concern about acts of repression and violence against members of the indigenous YATAMA party, as well as the continued attacks, criminalization and harassment of indigenous communities on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.

All this makes it difficult to cross this country, which causes an increase in direct trips to El Salvador, which also reduces one border to cross.

But the exodus continues as a total of 18,367 people took a flight to Nicaragua and did not return this year either, but they are less than the 39,595 who did not return in all of 2022.

These new routes have emerged since, in September 2021, Mexico again required visas for Ecuadorians to enter the country, making it more difficult to reach the United States.

Nicaragua and El Salvador are among the countries for which Ecuadorians do not need visas.

See the complete list here.

“Ecuadorians are looking for new routes, that’s why they don’t just go through Nicaragua, but now also through El Salvador and other countries, because the routes from the past are becoming more and more complicated,” says Izquierdo.

The Bahamian archipelago off the coast of Florida, in the United States, would also be used for the purpose of reaching the North American power. From that group of islands, 1,064 Ecuadorians who traveled this year did not return, which is a 440 percent increase since 197 did not return in all of 2022.

Lack of opportunities and insecurity encourage migration

“There are serious structural problems in the Ecuadorian economy, which is evident in this accelerated migration. Remittances that arrived during 2022 amounted to 4,743 million dollars, almost 70% of this amount came from the USA, while foreign direct investment reached 788 million dollars in the same year“, points out Izquierdo.

Remittances that arrived in 2022 grew by 8.73% compared to 2021, and are estimated to grow by 14% this year, Izquierdo says.

That’s a four-to-one difference in the ratio of income flows from migration to foreign direct investment.

What is most worrying is the exodus of young brains, says Estarellas. “Professionals don’t want to stay in Ecuador. They want to leave and that’s why they applied to leave, what’s happening is very serious.”

He 53.9% of Ecuadorians who went to El Salvador between January and September this year are between 18 and 35 years old.

As for those going to Nicaragua, 60.3% of them are between 18 and 35 years old.

The third country where the number of citizens who traveled and did not return increased the most is Spain. The number of non-returnees increased from 931 in the whole of 2022 to 4,935 in the current part of this year, which is an increase of 430 percent.

“The Spanish consulate in Guayaquil is overwhelmed by a large number of people who want to go to the European Union. There is a loss of faith and hope in Ecuadorian politicians. They do not see that this very serious problem of organized crime and drug trafficking will be solved, the intuition is that it will get worse“, says Estarellas.

The number of non-returnees also increased in Italy and the USA with an increase of 58% and 46% from 2022 to 2023. These are two countries with a large presence of migrants from Ecuador.

Most of them go in search of a job that will enable them to earn better. This exodus, Izquierdo says, is evident in Ecuador in the number of people who make up the economically active population (EAP), which includes those over 15 who have or are looking for work.

“What is happening is that today fewer people are doing PEA, So, with a smaller number of people looking for work, for obvious reasons there is an appearance that there are more of them with suitable employment, but this is a lie.“You have to analyze the data well,” says Izquierdo.

The problem with this migration is that the increase also responds to a lack of knowledge that the routes are increasingly congested and dangerous. And that the so-called American dream is further diluted with a less robust economy in the United States.

Most of this population has been deceived by coyotes, who tell them that this dream is still possible. “The pandemic has caused people to be absorbed into the US labor market, as there is a natural recovery phase when the economy reopens, but now that is changing. Starting this year, everything will balance out and the economy will no longer require so many jobs, so people need to think twice before they migrate,” says Izquierdo.

In the three options that coyotes give to reach the United States for a one-time payment in the range of $15,000, lies the risk of death or disappearance, Estarellas says. “The State Department needs to communicate how dangerous the route after El Salvador is to get to the United States.”