Since 2022, several warnings have been issued that the 2023-2024 dry season will be stronger than that year and that it is necessary to take a series of actions to avoid a power outage. However, the competent authorities for energy did not follow the path of agile action. Decisions were delayed, until this week saw the first blackouts and the uncertainty of whether these scenarios would happen again. This Friday there was no information on whether Colombia agreed to sell us the energy that Ecuador needs.

It is necessary to recall that in December 2022 and January 2023, Ecuador experienced uncertainty due to possible problems with energy production. Then hydropower production dropped from the usual 90% to 61% (today it is 79%). However, with the recovery of rain since last January, the problem has been corrected. At that time, an important factor that enabled us to succeed was the sale of energy from Colombia.

Since then, there has been cross-communication between the authorities in the energy sector itself, warning of what could happen.

Thus, on December 28, 2022, Minister Fernando Santos, who took office a few months before, indicated to the then president of EMCO, Joaquín Ponce, that in the electricity sector there were significant delays in the execution of transmission works and also the unavailability in the generation of several .

This was reiterated by the report of the then Deputy Minister of Electricity, Enith Carrión, in which it was indicated that it was necessary to recover the Trinitaria power plant, the Esmeraldas power plant 1. That the TBI Miraflores unit, the Aníbal Santos steam unit, the unavailable Unit II of the Álvaro Tinajero power plant, the TG2 and TG6 units Aníbal Santos, unit TG4 Gonzalo Zevallos; Jivina III units 1 and 3, Santa Elena III power plant unit, among others.

From that moment on, there were already talks about the risks of fuel availability for thermal power plants, delays in the work of Sarpullo and Alluriquín (both Toachi Pilatón complexes). At that time, the minister requested a definitive change in the then administration (Nicolás Andrade) and proposed Gonzalo Uquillas, the current manager of Celec, from the shortlist.

Meanwhile, on January 20, 2023, the deputy minister warned the then manager of Petroecuador, Hugo Aguiar, that the dry season that ended in March reduced the availability of hydroelectric generation, but it worked; “The new dry season starting in October 2023 and ending in March 2024, depending on its aggressiveness, could again put the power sector in a vulnerable position, which would require the use of all primary energy sources for the production of electricity. , among them, natural gas.”

In this sense, I insisted that he move on to the answer about gas production capacities and to speed up the concession of the Amistad field, as this would ensure the supply of national gas in the short, medium and long term. This did not happen and the process was postponed. This week, the concession of that field experienced a new setback, which was sought by interested companies, because the announcements that gas will be imported for Termogás Machala, using the capacities of the field under the concession, would cause doubts.

According to Jorge Luis Hidalgo, energy expert and manager of Green Power, the company that participates in the Amistad field concession, the lack of foresight and planning puts us at great risk of continuing blackouts. It is pointed out that the current energy authorities, including Minister Santos, Gonzalo Uquillas from Celec and Gabriel Argüello from Cenace, have been rotating in the top positions for more than ten years. Therefore, he says, they cannot justify that they could not foresee the problem.

Gonzalo Uquillas: ‘You have to choose between turning off the electricity or bringing in imported gas for six months’

Regarding the issue of gas imports promoted by Uquillas, and the hiring of a technician who could guarantee the use of Amistad’s infrastructure, he says that it is surprising that he is making a statement on an issue for which he has no jurisdiction, since he cannot manage the infrastructure that belongs to Petroecuador. Remember that there are two reports from Petroecuador that deny this possibility, considering it anti-technical and would threaten national production. But there are also adjustments to be made to the platform that would take more than eight months to complete, he says. So the question arises whether the idea is to find a solution for this dry season or whether they want to boycott Amistad’s field competition by creating uncertainty. In any case, Green Power is one of the companies that has just requested the postponement of the tender, with the explanation that they must be clear about the conditions of Amistad’s infrastructure, since any import would generate a change in the rules of the tender.

Additionally, he claims that an example of the neglect that has occurred in relation to the thermoelectric infrastructure is the damage to the two main turbines of Termogás Machal: one by last week and the other by Thursday. As for the direct purchase of engines, he assures that they will arrive between December and next March. Therefore, they would not be a solution for the dry season.

He also believes that depending on Colombia is a mistake, because they sell expensive energy, and the dry season also affects them. In fact, there are several voices asking President Gustavo Petro to stop selling electricity to Ecuador so that it can supply itself. “We are the best example of what not to do. Ecuador needs to create a national energy security strategy that includes strengthening national energy production, exploiting natural and associated gas, and generating energy efficiency policies,” he comments.

For Albert Acosta Burne, Editor Weekly analysis, the problem we have now is not due to the lack of rain: although we are in a dry period, this happens every year and the Government should have prepared. The real problem is the higher demand and the lack of creation of energy supply. He explains that in Ecuador we have installed capacities with serious problems. On the one hand, there are millions of works, built at an exorbitant price, which represent construction problems and are even overpriced. This is the case, for example, with Coca Codo Sinclair, which has a large production capacity, but does not have water for production. On the other hand, there was neglect of the authorities regarding the arrangement of the thermal park.

He adds that the absence of creating more electricity production has structural problems that must be solved, not before this dry season, but in the future; and it also has conjunctural edges.

Regarding the structure, it is said that we have a legal and tariff scheme that is not attractive for investments. “Since 2009, there have been no significant investments in energy supply.” He explains that although the treasury is in bankruptcy, a public-private alliance could have been made, or concessions to the private sector, but progress in some way.

For Acosta Burne, it would be important to work on three topics in the future:

Regarding the gas issue, according to Acosta Burneo, what must be done immediately to avoid dry periods is for the gas to reach Termogás Machal. He criticizes that for months there has been a fight over whether or not gas can be imported and the Amistad facilities used. If this is not possible, then a barge that can connect directly to Termogás should be hired immediately, he says.

You can also think of barges produced by diesel or fuel oil. He assures that, no matter how expensive it is, a power outage would be a greater cost to the state.

Regarding electricity in Colombia, let’s recall that the neighboring country has been warning for several months that it will not be able to supply us with energy like in the last dry season.

For its part, the Electric Corporation of Ecuador (Celec) reported on October 3, the day the first blackouts occurred, that various thermal generation units and facilities were made available in the last days of September with 266.8 megawatts (MW) for National Interconnected System (SNI). The units that received maintenance were the TV3 plant of Gonzalo Zevallos, with 70 MW; Enrique García TG5 plant, of 96 MW; thermal power plant Quevedo II, power 35 MW; and unit 6FA2, operated by Termogás Machala, with 65.8 MW.

As for hydropower plants, maintenance was carried out on units 1 and 2 of the Marcel Laniado de Wind power plant, each of 71 MW; block 1 of the Baba power plant, with 21 MW; unit 4 of the Coca Codo Sinclair plant, 187.5 MW; and unit 1 of the Molino power plant with 115 MW. In this way, an additional 465.5 megawatts were available for SNI. On October 5, the Sopladora turbine, which was under maintenance, started working again.