During the first days of October, the dollar has been showing an upward trend and, at the end of the first week of the tenth month of the year, had an advance of 0.14%, and reached S/3,828its highest level since February 21.
Likewise, in the latest BCRP Macroeconomic Expectations survey, it can be seen that the projections for the end of 2023 have presented consecutive increases.
In detail, from July 31 to August 31, both economic analysts and financial and non-financial entities have raised their projections: before they ranged between S/3.70 and S/3.73, but, by September, the three economic agents rose to S/3,750 (See graph).
In that sense, by 2024, they expect the exchange rate to be between S/3.76 and S/3.80, while in 2025 it is estimated that it will be between S/3.73 and S/3.85.
Dollar variations
The price of the foreign currency has been changing so far this year. In July it experienced its maximum drop in three years, standing at S/3.582, while from August and until the end of September it remained below S/3.80. However, on October 2 it was listed at S/3.8230, its highest value in seven months.
It should be noted that this inclination also coincides with the reduction of the reference interest rate by the BCRP, which lowered it by 25 basis points in September and October, going from 7.50% to 7.25%, respectively.
Other indicators
On the other hand, Javier Pineda, general manager of Billex, indicates that the greenback could rise even further and exceed S/3.85 at the end of 2023.
Among the reasons would be the expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding the increase in its rates that still persist, which could lead to an increase in the dollar in Peru.
Added to this is the risk of a negative impact from the El Niño phenomenon, which could contribute to the increase in the exchange rate, as the authorities are adjusting their expenses.
The data
BCRP. So far in 2023, the dollar accumulates a variation of 0.55% for Friday, October 6.
Figure. At the end of the week, US$349 million were traded in the market at an average price of S/3.8274.
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
