Like every month, the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) conducted a survey of businessmen to find out their perception of the Peruvian macroeconomy: the results are inauspicious and reflect pessimism facing what is coming.
“Based on this information, it is seen that business confidence is not recovering and rather there has been a deterioration in the month of September,” summarized Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies of the BCRP in dialogue with the press.
Less hope for growth
The fall has been more pronounced in the perspectives on the economy, the sector where a company is developed and investments; especially for the next three months (see infographic).
We see the only positive result in the short term in product demand, but it still fell from 53 to 51 points – below 50 is considered negative. And, although in the long term (12 months), macroeconomic expectations remain positive, a decline is observed in the economy, sector and personnel hiring.
Likewise, regarding the current situation, pessimism predominates in all items.
For more than two and a half years, business expectations have been on the rocks, and in the opinion of the Fiscal Council, they hamper the climate of private investment and the generation of jobs, which in a year marked by social conflicts and high inflation due to the threat of El Niño, limit Peru’s potential.
“Although there were signs of recovery, they are still in contractionary territory. That could condition economic performance through private investment,” commented Alonso Segura, member of the CF before the Congressional Budget Commission.
They recommend that the Government give “greater speed” to the prevention of El Niño and pave the way for private investment because in the face of weak tax collection “we expose ourselves to a weak fiscal position.”
Factors behind pessimism
Armas explained that business confidence in the short term is the one that has decreased the most and is due to the uncertainty on the part of businessmen regarding the impact that the phenomenon of The boy.
The head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), Alex Contreras, agrees with the monetary authority and points out that El Niño has impacted the vision that investments have in the country. “We are still in a complicated El Niño and that unfortunately is contaminating the expectations of investors and consumers themselves and is affecting the speed of recovery of the economy,” said Contreras Miranda.
Impact on fishing until 2024
The El Niño phenomenon (FEN) of moderate to strong intensity would impact fishing until the first half of 2024, according to a study carried out by Environmental Andina.
For his part, the economist and partner of Macroconsult, Elmer Cuba, told La República that climate change would have an impact on fishing and agriculture since “we are just seeing the true effects” of the lack of urea and droughts.
The CF, for its part, warns that the second anchovy fishing season may be delayed, with fewer landings of the resource or, in the worst case, not materialize, since the FEN Costero may continue until the summer of 2024. .
Source: Larepublica
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