The dollar depreciated at the beginning of the week, for the second time in a row, after the ministerial changes. Yesterday it closed at S / 4.0730. In this way, the US currency lost 0.51% compared to Thursday, October 7 (S / 4.0940); and -1.09% from Wednesday 6th, when Guido Bellido he left the PCM and the “green bill” rose to S / 4,138.
César Fuentes, economist at ESAN, considered that Political noise was one of the reasons for the currency rally. This was qualified by “the concern of the agents before a possible economic mismanagement in the coming months.” For this reason, he considered that the arrival of Mirtha Vásquez to the premier office and the ratification of Julio Velarde, at the head of the BCRP, will have an impact on the reading of economic agents, which “is transferred to the exchange rate.”
“The changes are in the medium term, so the dollar will stabilize in the coming months,” he told La República.
Higher margin of the BCRP
Kurt Burneo, Former director of the BCRP, said in RTV Economía that the Central Bank has room for action for greater exchange rate intervention with the sale of dollars and other instruments indexed to the dollar, which could also help to lower the dollar further and thereby reduce inflationary levels .
Luis Alberto Arias Minaya, former vice president of the BCRP, demanded that “the positive signs continue to have more days of appreciation of the sun.”
“The level (value of the dollar) is unpredictable, what can be assured is that it does not return to the level of last week. The important thing is to give confidence to the Vasquez cabinet, ”he said.
Juan José Marthans, former director of the BCRP, He noted that the Government still has to resolve some pending issues to reduce the causes of the rise in the exchange market, among them, “the questions to the Ministers of Education and Interior, such as the convincing clarification of the president to set aside the intention of a reform constitutional”. “If both are diluted, the exchange rate would show a second wave of reduction, but in no case below S / 3.60,” he said.
The economist Jorge Guillén recalled that there is still an international factor such as the possible rise in the reference rate in the United States and an anticipated decrease in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.
It should be noted that The dollar grew in its price throughout the world, but in countries such as Colombia, Chile and Peru it was more noticeable due to social and political imbalances.
Marthans said that in recent weeks the instability of the energy sector in Europe unleashed a wave of bullish bets on the currency.
“You have to be attentive to international performance. The energy crisis also contributes to volatility. Without a quick solution, that will affect prices and the exchange rate. We still can’t hope for a low dollar. “
The Stock Market with figures in blue
The S&P Peru General, the main indicator of the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL), recorded 1.08% (19,585.61 points) in yesterday’s trading session. The S&P Peru Select, for its part, registered 1.06% (511.79 integers).
The capital park showed strength in five economic sectors. The one that gained the most was the financial one, with 1.41%; It was seconded by the industrial sector (1.23%); mining activity registered 0.95%; and that of construction presented 0.62%. Meanwhile, the losers of the day were services and electricity, with 4.6% both.
Arias Minaya pointed out that bond prices in international markets were attractive in recent days, which reduced the country’s indebtedness.
The word
Juan José Marthans, former director of the BCRP
“You have to be attentive to international performance. The energy crisis also contributes to volatility. Without a quick solution, this will affect prices and the exchange rate ”.
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