A week before Ecuador’s election – when one of the candidates was killed – the country’s risk fell on its ranking to close last week at 1,822 points.

In the first two weeks of August, this indicator, which measures the ability to pay the country’s foreign debt, exceeded 2,000 points, and on Wednesday, August 9, it began to fall from 2,033 to 1,994 points. In the late afternoon of that day, Construye’s presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated. On Thursday, country risk continued to fall to 1,900 points, and on Friday to 1,822, according to data published by the Central Bank of Ecuador.

How does high country risk affect the Government, companies and citizens?

The president of the Círculo de Economía de Guayaquil, Larry Yumibanda, believes that country risk remains high and that the decrease is due to the fact that the markets perceive that there could be a runoff between candidates from the left and candidates from the right.

“This allows those in charge of risk assessment agencies to see the perception that in the case of Ecuador there is a greater chance of a centre-right oriented president, which gives peace of mind to the markets as compliance with debt principal and interest payments is also a guaranteed issue management of international reserves, as well as prudent fiscal and commercial policy, continuity with commercial opening. But it is aimed at candidates who are connected from the center to the right and who, in one way or another, are looking, according to the discretion of those who are at the head of the rating agencies, to continue to believe in private investments”, he analyzed.

The country’s risk will be high for “several years”, after the cross death and election processes

It also indicates that the price of a barrel of oil has started to rise slightly and that this also guarantees funds for servicing the debt.

For the analyst, the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio hardly has a big impact on the country’s risk, “because this indicator measures Ecuador’s ability to pay international and local creditors and so far the country has not been seen to meet its obligations.”

On August 2, country risk broke through the 2,000-point mark. Then the Central Bank reports that it reached 2,018 points, and on August 3rd it recorded its highest peak: 2,035 points. In the next ten days, it fell 213 points.