MEF: “In July we expect to have the highest growth rate of the year”

The head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), Alex Contreraspointed out that after the rocky performance of the GDP – which fell 0.49% accumulated since January and fell back to -1.43% in May – “in July we expect to have the highest growth rate of the year”.

When asked about the details of the future of June, Contreras Miranda was cautious, but stressed that “in the third and fourth quarters there will be a major recovery”, after its presentation at the XIV International Economic Forum “Quo Vadis 2023″ of the Chamber of Commerce of Lima (CCL).

It is worth noting that for this 2023 it is estimated that the economy will close, according to the MEF, at 2.5%. It is the most optimistic reading, considering that fronts such as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) and Scotiabank expect it to reach 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Always with a downward bias for global El Niño and sociopolitical conflict.

Juan Carlos Odardirector of Phase Consultantsmaintains that it does not seem complicated that what Contreras estimates for July is fulfilled, considering that the highest indicator of the year was 0.3% in April.

“It is not a spectacular number. Would 0.5% be the highest? It’s not complicated. It could happen, without a doubt, ”she pointed out.

“Recession is a fancy term”

Contreras Miranda is not in favor of those analysts who in recent days have assured that Peru is in a technical recession and, on the contrary, he labels this concept as “a fancy term” since a latent recovery of employment has been seen.

However, according to the INEI, between April and June of this year, about 150,000 jobs formal to reach 2019 levels.

The official added that after last year’s crisis in the agricultural sector, a recovery of sowings is already being observed: in the period from December to March that of potatoes rose 56.7% and of starchy corn, 39.1%.