Are the Wagner Group’s actions in Russia a coup?

This is a defining moment in Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine and a potential challenge to Vladimir Putin’s power.

The Russian president accused the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, of treason, of starting an armed uprising, giving his country what he called “a knife in the back”.

Prigozhin, one of Russia’s leading figures, said his goal was not “a military coup, but a march for justice”.

What will happen to the Wagner Group?

For months, Prigozhin has played a vital role in the Russian military campaign in Ukraine, recruiting thousands of soldiers for his group of mercenaries, mostly from Russian prisons.

It has long been embroiled in open dispute with the Russian warlords waging the war, but it has now turned into a revolt.

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Wagner’s troops crossed from occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to the Russian city rostov-on-donand they claim the control over their military installations.

Putin acknowledged that the situation is difficult, but promised to do everything possible to defend Russia.

Is this a coup?

All claims that this is a military coup are absurd, Prigozhin himself claims.

But what started as an open dispute about the Russian army not supplying its mercenaries with enough equipment and ammunition has now turned into a feud. direct challenge to the two men charged with leading the war in Ukraine: the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.

for now this no hits, as no attempt was made to seize power from the government. The “private military company” also does not represent the military, although it claims to have widespread support.

But it’s one attempt to overthrow the top of Russia and so one challenging the authority of President Putin. And although it was the Russian president who allowed Prigozhin and his troops to get involved in the war, Putin has no control over him anymore.

The Kremlin takes this very seriously. The entire Moscow region has been put on alert and is under a strict “regime of counter-terrorist operations” and major planned events in the Russian capital have been cancelled.

Similar measures have been taken in the Voronezh region, near the northeastern border with Ukraine.

“There is 25,000 of us”, declared Prigozhin. “Whoever wants to join in.”

This is not enough to threaten President Putin, but it is a challenge to the Russian military leadership.

The leader of the Wagner Group denies betraying Russia and says in an outspoken criticism of the president that he is “deeply wrong”.

What is Prigozhin looking for?

His idea of ​​a “march for justice” is vague, but his feud with Russian military leaders has clearly escalated so quickly that he wants to expel them.

A video shows Prigozhin telling a deputy defense minister and a general in Rostov on Friday that until the top two military figures talk to him, his mercenaries will blockade the city and move on to Moscow.

The fight is not with the Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but with the “clowns” who lead them, says Prigozhin.

Several generals have asked him to calm down, but it seems too late.

What is the relationship between Putin and Prigozhin?

Prigozhin has long been a close ally of President Putin and prospered under him, first as a wealthy businessman and later as a mercenary.

Large numbers of Wagner Group fighters were killed during the bitter campaign to capture Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which lasted for months and was never fully completed.

Prigozhin blamed top military leaders for the grenade shortage, with graphic videos and abusive rants on social media exposing the flaws and rifts within the Russian military in Ukraine.

He never directed his anger directly at the president, but his sarcastic references to “happy grandpa” were widely interpreted as a indirect criticism of Putin.

Last month he asked how Russia could win, if it turned out that “this grandfather was a complete idiot”.

At the beginning of June, President Putin supported a measure by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that all mercenary groups in Ukraine have a contract with your ministry before July 1.

Prigozhin refused, stating that this measure was a challenge to his authority.

In a lengthy diatribe on June 23, he told the Russians that the entire justification for their war was a lie and just an excuse for “a small group of assholes” to promote themselves and mislead the public and the president.

A serious moment for Putin and Russia

This is not a direct challenge to Russia’s war in Ukraine or the president’s leadership.

But it is serious enough that the Russian leader made a five-minute televised speech in a determined and unwavering tone.

Prigozhin threatened not only to set up a camp in Rostov, but also to go to Moscow if his military demands are not met.

So far, it has only clashed with the Russian military leadership to get it to increase weapons stockpiles. Now I know confront the leadership itself.

Prigozhin enjoys significant public support in Russia and even if his challenge fails, this is a moment of crisis for an army that relies on its mercenaries in Ukraine.

But this is also one decisive moment for Putin’s leadership and a wake-up call for the Russians. It is too early to say how what is happening will end.