BBVA Research’s projections for the Peruvian economy are the lowest: they reduced GDP growth for this year from 1.9% to 1.6%. By 2024 they no longer expect a rate of 3.0%, but one of 2.6%.
Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Research, predicts that, after the contraction of the first quarter, “the outlook does not look very good” for the second, since domestic cement consumption will fall by almost double digits and household spending will continue to weaken, thus yielding a variation below 1%. “We probably have growth of around 0.8%,” he said.
“If there is a revision, it will be downwards,” added Perea, after arguing that the main risks facing the country are adverse weather conditions —that is, the ravages of El Niño Costero, Yaku and the eventual El Niño Phenomenon— as well as the “relative political and social stability, albeit precarious,” he added.
Another factor that will have a negative impact will be the absence of anchovy fishing, which will cost 1.3 percentage points to GDP in May and June.
Pera pointed out that, unlike the BCRP, they hope that private investment contracts by the current 3.0%. By 2024 they expect it to rise to 2.2%.
Source: Larepublica
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