Agricultural sector would grow only 0.4% in 2023

The agricultural sector in April this year it fell -14.21% compared to the same month last year. This result accumulated from the performance of the months prior to 2023 pushed agricultural production to fall -4.63% in the first four months of the year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).

This result was mainly due to the lower production of the agricultural subsector, which decreased by 7.0% with around S/7 million 416,830 mobilized; and a 0.8% reduction in the livestock subsector, which boosted S/4 million 844,755, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri).

In the agricultural subsector, the most affected products were potatoes with a reduction of 35.15%, quinoa (-81.80%), olives (-42.33%), alfalfa (-21.14%), yellow corn hard (-22.41%), starchy corn (-36.49%), sugar cane (-21.80%), etc.

The good performance of paddy rice, which grew by 11.3%, blueberry (+38.3%), grape (+10.5%), oil palm (+10.8%), mandarin (+10, 5%) and mango (+5.4%).

While in the livestock sector, the negative figure was influenced by the lower production of chicken that decreased by 1.4%, mainly in La Libertad, Arequipa and Piura.

Chicken egg production also decreased 2.1%. In contrast, an increase in production of 2.4% was observed in the porcine species, according to Midagri.

They cut forecast

The poor agricultural performance so far this year led the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) to reduce the growth projection for this year from 2.2% to only 0.4% for a sector that contributes almost 6% to GDP.

The BCRP indicates in its latest inflation report that among the factors for this new estimate are the impact of climatic anomalies such as the water deficit until January 2023 and frost in the mountains and variations in environmental temperature and rainfall on the coast. .

Added to this is the slow recovery of livestock production due to bird flu. However, for 2024 the growth projection remains at 2.7%. This under the scenario of a Coastal Child weak has moderated in the coming summer and the recovery of the poultry sector from the second half of this year.

Post-crisis factors

The decline in agricultural GDP is driven by external factors such as the continuation of the war in Ukraine and local factors such as the political crisis, inflation and weather phenomena, he maintains. Anaximander Rojaspresident of Conveagro.

“The issue of Cyclone Yaku, the El Niño phenomenon, and with the announcement of the Global Niño phenomenon, the crisis in the sector is further exacerbated,” he warns.

For his part, rosalia clemente, president of the National Agrarian Confederation (CNA), points out that the farmers most affected by this situation are those located in the high Andean areas of the country. “In this area frost, snowfall and hail fall,” she mentions.

While Rojas stresses that this situation will affect the food security of small farmers at the national level. “This really affects rural economiesto rural producers because they sow for their subsistence”, he points out.

Both agricultural representatives agree that to mitigate the crisis a more articulated work between the central government and regional and local governments is necessary. “There are projects that don’t reach the communities that need them,” says Clemente.

Measures to deal with El Niño

The first thing that the Government must do to wait for El Niño Global is allocate resources for the purchase of machinery that serves to clear and strengthen the river defenses of rivers and streams in rural areas, mentions Anaximander Rojas.

A second measure —he explains— should be an aggressive seed program with genetic diversity that allows crops to resist pests caused by changing weather conditions.