This June 17 marks one month since the President of the Republic, Guillermo Lasso, proclaimed the cross of death. The death cross, which means the president dissolves the assembly and the elections for the president and members of the assembly are moved forward, increased the country’s risk by several points, although this indicator – which measures the market’s perception of whether Ecuador will be able to meet its foreign debt obligations – they have been high for several months.

Thus, issues such as sectional elections and voting in the referendum that were unfavorable for the Government, the attempt to remove the president by the members of the assembly, the death on the cross itself, were the neuralgic points of the country’s risk behavior in 2023.

On June 15, the country’s risk was 1,875 points, just below Argentina, which has 2,357 points, and Venezuela, which reaches an astronomical figure of 41,031 points.

During the month of the Crucifixion, the indicator went from 1832 points on May 17 (the day of the Crucifixion) to 1875 on June 15 (the last available data). However, at its peak, on June 2, it was 1,923 points. In the previous days, when the impeachment was discussed in the Supervisory Committee of the Assembly, the indicator was at 1,627 points. However, as the impeachment process continued, the country’s risk increased.

For Santiago Mosquera, economic analyst and dean of the UDLA Business School, country risk did not change much this month, reflecting that the market had already included, months before, in its assessment of Ecuador’s assets cross-death scenarios and a possible expected election campaign. Since the possibility of a political trial was seen, Mosquera says, the market assumed that Guillermo Lasso would either be fired or be crucified and that he would also leave.

In any case, for Mosquera, the issue of country risk and its increase is latent. There are other issues concerning the market. Right now he’s taking care of Fr what can happen with ITTat the public consultation that will also be held in August 20 together with the elections presidential and parliamentary members.

The country risk indicator has not yet moved on the ITT issue, but is in discussions with investors, according to Mosquera. He explains that he is interested in the implications of a possible positive result on the consultation. Will the Government do something or not do anything about it. According to Mosquera, stopping production at ITT would cause less tax revenue, but also the costs that must be incurred both for the removal of the entire infrastructure and for rehabilitation.

According to Mosquera, the outcome of the Yasuní issue is not clear. The only certainty is that the proposal is to leave the oil on land, which he proposes The Yasunidos collective has about 750,000 votes (compared to the signatures submitted to the National Electoral Council for the initiation of consultations), but it is not known what the rest of the population will say.

Mosquera also indicates that another issue that worries the market is how the government will close lack of funds for this year. As part of this, a frequent question from investors is how the level of payments from multilateral organizations is going. He explains that, as far as is known, until March 2023, this delivery of funds was weak, as only 38 million dollars arrived in the first quarter of the year.