Rescheduled loans fell to just 3% in March

Along with a greater dynamism of loans aimed at the consumer and mypes sectors, the Superintendence of Banking, Insurance and AFP (SBS) highlighted that, in March 2023, there was a significant reduction in the rescheduling of all types of credits compared to the same month of the previous year.

Thus, the SBS Financial System Stability Report indicates that loans rescheduled to the third month of 2023 fell to only 3% from a horizon of 5.9% in March 2022.

The analysis period shows that Peruvian companies rescheduled loans for a total of S/2.7 billion due to the social conflicts that hit the country in the first part of the year. Similarly, in March they rescheduled S/358 million in credits due to torrential rains and the scourge of Cyclone Yaku.

Loans from the mortgage sector maintain the highest percentage of reprogramming observed by the superintendency, with an average of 5.5% compared to 7.3% in March of last year. Meanwhile, the reprogrammed credits of the mype sector fell from 9.6% to 3.7%; consumer loans, from 4.3% to 1.6%; and non-retail —corporate—, from 5.2% to 2.6%.

“Here, the dynamic is that those rescheduled by COVID-19 are going downand those rescheduled due to rains and social protests. In the end, the effect means that those rescheduled, as a whole, have not moved as much,” the entity specified.

credits to all

The SBS also warns of a greater dynamism in the financial market, to the point that the granting of credits has reached, in March 2023, an annual progress of 9.2%.

Thus, the total portfolio (which includes government programs) occupies S/407,038 million, of which S/15,820 million (3.9%) correspond to the portfolio of government programs and a balance of S/11,734 million (2.9%) of rescheduled credits due to the health emergency is maintained.

The greatest dynamism can be seen in consumer loans (21.3%) and those directed to mypes (18.1%), which are beginning to “approach pre-pandemic growth rates.” On the other hand, the non-retail portfolio does register a subprime loan ratio (CAR) of 6%, above the pre-virus season.

Meanwhile, the consumer, mortgage and mypes portfolios registered a ratio CHAR of 4.9%, 4.2% and 8.9%, respectively, discounting government programs. The SBS reports that its levels are close to those registered in February 2020.

“Non-retail loans have shown growth of 4% as of March, which is below the 6 months prior to the start of the pandemic […]. It is partly due to the macroeconomic impact, conflicts, rains and changes in company strategy,” he said.

GDP would grow 0.8% in 2023 due to El Niño

The SBS noted that the Peruvian economy would grow only 0.8% in 2023 if a moderate El Niño phenomenon occurred —in addition to a weak one in 2024— and new social conflicts in the second half of the year.

This “stress” scenario would mean a greater deterioration for the portfolios of mypes, medium-sized companies and consumption. Failure to credits in the first, with a base scenario of 8.5% at the end of 2022, it would shoot up to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024, from an initial forecast of 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

Despite this, SBS signaled that the financial system would remain resilient.

Behavior of credits and reprogramming in the financial system in March 2023