The construction it is the economic sector with the worst performance so far this year. In the first quarter, its production contracted 11.5%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI).
Only in March it fell 12.4%, its lowest result since July 2020 (-12.8%).
The negative trend would have continued in April, with a monthly drop of 10.8%, estimated Guido Valdivia, executive director of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco).
While the cumulative decline in the first quarter would be 10.6%. These estimates consider a 9.1% advance in investment in public works, a subsector that fell 3% in March after 9 months of consecutive growth, but warn of a 17.3% drop in internal cement consumption, a key indicator of the sector.
“You don’t see good data in the construction sector until the first quarter; if we add up, we are already in a 10.6% drop (…) A very big effort would have to be made in the remainder of the year to reach significant levels of growth,” he said during the presentation of the latest Construction Economic Report.
Construction sector would have fallen more than 10% in the first quarter of the year. Photo: diffusion
It should be noted that the consumption of cement It would drag 8 months in a row in the negative tranche until April, the last 4 in proportions greater than 15% (see infographic).
ambitious goals
The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) forecasts for this year that construction GDP will increase 0.5%, while the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) expects 1.0%.
“In order to meet the BCRP goal, a 6% sectoral growth would be needed between May and December. If the goal of the MEF is to be achieved, the sector should grow approximately 5% in the remaining 8 months of 2023,” Valdivia said.
Meanwhile, Capeco forecasts a 0.4% rise. For their part, other private consultants such as BBVA Research, Apoyo Consultoría, Macroconsult and Scotiabank They project a drop in construction production of between 3.4% and 0.5%.
Prioritize rebuilding
Among the actions that Valdivia recommends to boost public investment within the sector is the prioritization of the reconstruction of infrastructures affected by the rains and the works that have been left pending, especially those of fluvial drainage and basin management.
In addition, it suggests updating the construction cost indices, because the current values ”are not reflecting reality and do not recognize the true price increase to contractors.”
The MEF estimates that the increase in the GDP of the construction sector advances 0.5%. Photo: diffusion
Mortgage credits
The disbursement of mortgage loans contracted by 24.8% at the end of the first quarter, which is explained by the 34.4% decrease in loans granted by financial institutions with their own resources.
Although it also had an influence that the operations funded by myhome suffered a slight fall of 0.5% and reached a participation of 37.3% in the granting of these credits. This was 9 percentage points more than in the January-March 2022 period.
Fact
Recovery. By 2024, the BCRP estimates that construction will advance 3.2%; while the MEF forecasts that it will do so at 3.5%. BBVA points to 3.7%.
The word
Guido Valdivia, director of Capeco
“You don’t see good data in the construction sector until the first quarter. It would be necessary to make a very big effort in what remains of the year to reach important levels of growth”.
Source: Larepublica
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