Death on the cross puts the validity of the trade deal with China on hold

The application of the cross of death by the President of the Republic, Guillermo Lasso, has an effect not only politically but also commercially, since the process that had to follow the agreement signed with China on May 10 has been put on hold after there is no National Assembly to ratify it as established by the Constitution .

This was confirmed by government minister Henry Cucalón, explaining that the next national assembly will have to review and ratify the agreement.

“According to the Constitution, it can only be ratified by the National Assembly, in this period, five or six months, that will not be possible. Agreements are only valid when they are ratified by the Assembly, and it cannot be ratified in this short period, it is important that it has already been signed,” said Cucalón, who is convinced that the next convocation of the Assembly will not have a problem approving the agreement.

In the face of death on the cross, the business sector asks political and social groups to maintain constitutional order and the normal functioning of economic activity

This agreement, which includes 99.6% of Ecuador’s export supply and excludes 828 subheadings of very sensitive products, was negotiated in ten months with China, where Ecuadorian exports increased by 57% in 2022 from 5,706 million dollars.

Until the statements of the Minister of the Government, there was no certainty in the business sector and in part of the executive power itself about whether we should wait for the appointment of a new Assembly or whether the agreement could enter into force by decree, through which President Lasso will rule until a new president is elected in early elections as would finish the government’s mandate by 2025.

EL UNIVERSO newspaper consulted the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments and Fisheries, the Ecuadorian Federation of Exporters (Fedexpor) and the Ecuadorian Business Committee, but the common denominator in the first hours after the announcement of the crucifixion was that there was nothing clear about the direction this deal would go .

From the production portfolio, they indicated that Minister Julio José Prado plans to explain the mechanism that will be followed, but by the time this edition was closed, this had not happened.

On the business side, the path was also not clear. The executive president of Fedexpor, Felipe Ribadeneira, said that “since it is a situation that has not been experienced in the country, we are under analysis, however, we understand that since there is no National Assembly, the President of the Republic will motivate its approval and refer it to review and certification of the Constitutional Court”.

The business committee also analyzed the process.

However, Alberto Acosta Burneo, editor Weekly analysishe warned on his Twitter that everything that President Laso prescribes by decree can cancel the new convocation of the Assembly when he takes office, which would include the eventual entry into force of the agreement in that way.

“Let’s not get our hopes up too much, the deadly cross allows the Government to pass its laws by decree, but they require a prior decision by the Constitutional Court, and also when the new Parliament takes office, they can be repealed, anything that is done in those six months at most can be nothing Acosta indicated.

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Before the death cross, according to Minister Prado’s calculations, this legislative process should last until the end of this year, at most the first months of 2024, so that the first effects of the agreement with the Asian giant begin to be felt.

This is taking into account the fact that before landing in the Parliament, the text of the agreement had to reach the Constitutional Court in order to ensure that each of the conditions agreed with China does not violate any constitutional norm and then it can approve it.

The Constitutional Court would have about a month to give its opinion, and then it would go to the National Assembly, to the Commission for International Relations, as the Ministry of Production clarified a few days ago.