Javier Herrera Zúñiga: “There is more hunger in Lima than in the regional sphere”

— What does the increase in poverty levels imply? Is it a slap on the wrist to the flow of the economy?

You have to understand what happened to see the problem in a disaggregated way. We see differentiated regional dynamics. For example, in the rural area Poverty in 2022 is at its lowest historical levels, if I’m not mistaken, since 2004. The reverse occurs with Lima. We are with 27% of poverty and it takes us back to a period of many years ago, practically to 2006, even, the difference is abysmal with respect to the rest of urban areas. The dynamics of poverty in the capital is quite worrisome. Almost a third of the total poor are here.

— So, it is urgent to redirect the solutions…

Not yet considered vulnerable population, which causes poverty in the urban area to vary strongly. The result now reflects that 9 out of 10 new poor, so to speak, reside in the urban area. What has to be done urgently is to devise new strategies to fight against urban poverty because those that were generated at the beginning of the century such as Juntos or Contigo go to rural areas such as the mountains, where the poverty rate was close to 80%. It is not that we abandon these policies, but we must adapt.

— For example, where to aim?

A better reintegration into the labor market must be guaranteed. In the case of women, for example, urban childcare centers should be established as in other countries to encourage their return to the working market. Social protection must also be nurtured for the elderly. We must anticipate solutions and not wait for them to blow up in our faces.

— Is the outlook complicated by the lower economic growth forecast for this year?

Experience shows that phases of strong (economic) growth lead to strong reductions in poverty. We also see that the redistribution effect has been relatively low compared to the growth effect, and that this has occurred to the detriment of the poorest. There is a very strong contrast in the poverty and wealth deciles. Beyond the model, there is a problem of efficiency in the State to carry out its public policies and reach the population. Despite the liberal model, the lack of attention to policies to reduce informality is also failing.

— And if we continue applying bonds to help the poorest?

I think that in general, in the longer term, it is necessary to debonify policies, but we should not abandon them while there are emergency situations. We have the common pots, which should continue to receive support from the Government due to their importance, even more so seeing that the caloric deficit, which represents the number of homes with an adequate consumption of calories, has skyrocketed. In Lima it has shot up to about 45%, surpassing other regions or rural areas. There is more hunger in Lima, so to speak, than in rural areas.

— How do we stay in the photo at a regional level?

Different countries face different contexts. Venezuela and Argentina, for example, are experiencing widespread poverty and inflation. Let us be careful with the policy instruments that slow down the expansion of the economy, such as the rise in interest rates that makes credit more expensive. This is not the time to make it expensive.

— How much would the poverty rate normalize to?

It’s hard to say. we have now a spending stagnationbut with growth in poverty due to the distortion of the distribution of spending, thus harming the poorest. Inflation hit them harder because they spend their little income on food, and these are the ones that have risen the most. Inflation has been higher where the poorest, unlike in rich homes.