In 2022, GDP would grow by 3%, according to Credicorp Capital

Peru’s GDP in 2022 would grow by 3% due to a trend that affects the whole world, but especially Latin America due to the devaluations of currencies, as well as the increase in the price of oil and food worldwide, reported Klaus Kaempfe, director of Portfolio Solutions at Credicorp Capital Asset Management.

Peru leads world growth with 11.4% by 2021. It is one of the few countries in the world that has double-digit growth in the region, largely due to the statistical rebound after the impact of COVID-19. “This is because the 2020 comparison base was very bad,” explained the specialist.

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Flaus Kaempfe estimates that the economy would return to pre-pandemic levels of the coronavirus in mid-2022, provided there is no outbreak of the coronavirus. He also stressed that the slowdown for Latin America and Peru towards next year has to do with China.

“We hope that China grows 7.9% during 2021, but at the beginning of the year we expected China to grow 10% in 2021. We have had to correct expectations by reducing growth by 2.1% while maintaining ”, he indicated.

Political context in the GDP

Regarding whether the political context affects the growth of Peru, the specialist pointed out that this would not be the case. He reported that the economy is driven by more relevant factors than the political one in the short term. “Respond to what happens internationally. I think that what does reflect the political context is the level of the exchange rate, but not the economy ”.

The representative of Credicorp Capital stated that the Political uncertainty in the region would hit investment for 2022 and 2023 throughout the Latin American region. However, he emphasized that what happens in the Chinese real estate market should be of greater interest to the country, as well as the price of copper, which is one of the main minerals that Peru exports to the Asian country.

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“Our expectation is that in December China will accelerate its economy and for the second quarter of next year would grow 6%. This will greatly help the Peruvian and Latin American economies due to the sale of metals, such as iron and copper, which affect the main stock markets in the region ”, he reported.

He also highlighted that China is the only economy that had positive growth in the 2020 with 2.3%, but that this represents a level much lower than what China grows regularly, which is 6%.

“For the growth levels in China, the 2022 rate is low. Then it will be very important to see if the real estate market in China will be reactivated or if it will be a disaster, see the evolution of the Evergrande case, see if its real estate market can be accelerated and see if China can reactivate to 6% ”, he stressed.

Globally, by the end of 2021 a growth of 6% is projected, a figure that is mainly affected by the growth of United States, which would grow 5.7%. Finally, he mentioned that a factor that could affect the advancement of economies worldwide would be the re-emergence of an uncontrolled variant of coronavirus.